2004-05 NBA Player Ratings:
PER Difference & On/Off Court
Trying to build a comprehensive player rating scheme is no easy task. We'll admit to being partial to the excellent work done by Dan Rosenbaum with his ultra-sophisticated DanVal numbers, or gauging player efficency on a possession basis ala Dean Oliver.
Last season though we did present the 2003-04 PER Difference + On/Off Ratings and we've been getting calls for a similar analysis this year, so here it is through March 20th. The 'PER Difference' numbers are based upon John Hollinger's PER formula as expressed in his excellent Pro Basketball Forecast books, using a player's own PER matched up against the PER posted by his counterpart (eg when playing SG, the counterpart is the opposing SG). Then we factor in our own in-house 'On Court vs Off Court' team performance metrics.
Put these together, average them (for now at least), and take a look at the salary a player is pulling down and you can quickly get a sense of who some of the more undervalued and overvalued players around the league.
In the table below we show the top fifty qualifying players for the 2004-05 regular season with their respective PER numbers, On/Off court effect (per 48 minutes), and averaged PER+On/Off rating.
[As of 3/21, Minimum: 25% of minutes played]
|
PER Difference |
On Court/Off Court |
PER + |
| Rk |
Player |
Tm |
Min |
PER |
Opp |
Net |
On |
Off |
Net |
On/Off |
| 1 |
Duncan |
SAS |
67% |
29.7 |
14.3 |
+15.3 |
+15.6 |
-1.2 |
+16.8 |
+16.1 |
| 2 |
Nowitzki |
DAL |
79% |
27.5 |
16.1 |
+11.4 |
+8.1 |
-9.5 |
+17.6 |
+14.5 |
| 3 |
Ginobili |
SAS |
56% |
24.4 |
11.0 |
+13.4 |
+16.6 |
+1.6 |
+15.0 |
+14.2 |
| 4 |
Kirilenko |
UTA |
41% |
25.9 |
9.6 |
+16.3 |
+3.0 |
-8.9 |
+11.9 |
+14.1 |
| 5 |
O'Neal |
MIA |
66% |
28.7 |
12.1 |
+16.5 |
+9.5 |
+3.1 |
+6.4 |
+11.5 |
| 6 |
Brand |
LAC |
75% |
23.6 |
14.5 |
+9.1 |
+2.6 |
-10.1 |
+12.7 |
+10.9 |
| 7 |
James |
CLE |
83% |
28.0 |
14.6 |
+13.4 |
+3.4 |
-4.8 |
+8.3 |
+10.9 |
| 8 |
Stoudemire |
PHO |
75% |
28.4 |
17.4 |
+11.0 |
+9.5 |
-1.0 |
+10.6 |
+10.8 |
| 9 |
Nash |
PHO |
65% |
23.9 |
16.4 |
+7.5 |
+11.6 |
-1.9 |
+13.6 |
+10.5 |
| 10 |
Garnett |
MIN |
80% |
30.2 |
13.7 |
+16.5 |
+0.9 |
-2.1 |
+3.0 |
+9.7 |
| 11 |
Marbury |
NYK |
83% |
22.5 |
15.6 |
+7.0 |
-0.4 |
-12.7 |
+12.2 |
+9.6 |
| 12 |
Prince |
DET |
76% |
17.0 |
12.8 |
+4.3 |
+7.2 |
-7.6 |
+14.7 |
+9.5 |
| 13 |
Carter |
NJN |
51% |
24.5 |
15.8 |
+8.7 |
+1.8 |
-8.5 |
+10.2 |
+9.5 |
| 14 |
Kidd |
NJN |
57% |
20.3 |
16.2 |
+4.1 |
+2.8 |
-11.4 |
+14.2 |
+9.2 |
| 15 |
Arenas |
WAS |
82% |
22.9 |
16.5 |
+6.4 |
+2.3 |
-9.4 |
+11.7 |
+9.1 |
| 16 |
Marion |
PHO |
80% |
23.0 |
17.5 |
+5.5 |
+9.4 |
-3.2 |
+12.6 |
+9.1 |
| 17 |
Pierce |
BOS |
74% |
23.5 |
15.3 |
+8.2 |
+4.1 |
-5.5 |
+9.6 |
+8.9 |
| 18 |
Iverson |
PHI |
80% |
24.3 |
11.4 |
+12.9 |
-0.1 |
-4.9 |
+4.8 |
+8.9 |
| 19 |
Hughes |
WAS |
53% |
23.5 |
15.7 |
+7.8 |
+4.0 |
-4.2 |
+8.2 |
+8.0 |
| 20 |
Bryant |
LAL |
68% |
24.7 |
13.3 |
+11.5 |
+0.0 |
-4.4 |
+4.4 |
+7.9 |
| 21 |
Allen |
SEA |
78% |
22.4 |
15.1 |
+7.3 |
+5.7 |
-2.6 |
+8.3 |
+7.8 |
| 22 |
McGrady |
HOU |
82% |
23.6 |
12.3 |
+11.3 |
+3.5 |
-0.5 |
+4.0 |
+7.6 |
| 23 |
Lewis |
SEA |
78% |
21.0 |
13.3 |
+7.6 |
+5.6 |
-2.0 |
+7.6 |
+7.6 |
| 24 |
Miller |
IND |
50% |
16.4 |
11.3 |
+5.1 |
+4.6 |
-5.2 |
+9.9 |
+7.5 |
| 25 |
Terry |
DAL |
61% |
20.4 |
15.8 |
+4.5 |
+8.1 |
-1.4 |
+9.6 |
+7.1 |
| 26 |
Miller |
SAC |
63% |
22.3 |
16.2 |
+6.0 |
+4.5 |
-3.6 |
+8.1 |
+7.1 |
| 27 |
Haywood |
WAS |
55% |
18.3 |
16.4 |
+1.9 |
+5.6 |
-6.4 |
+12.0 |
+6.9 |
| 28 |
Bibby |
SAC |
80% |
20.7 |
16.6 |
+4.1 |
+3.5 |
-6.1 |
+9.7 |
+6.9 |
| 29 |
Billups |
DET |
73% |
20.6 |
13.8 |
+6.8 |
+5.5 |
-1.5 |
+7.0 |
+6.9 |
| 30 |
Wade |
MIA |
75% |
25.4 |
11.8 |
+13.6 |
+7.2 |
+7.5 |
-0.3 |
+6.7 |
| 31 |
Hamilton |
DET |
78% |
16.9 |
14.3 |
+2.6 |
+5.9 |
-4.4 |
+10.3 |
+6.4 |
| 32 |
Battier |
MEM |
64% |
15.7 |
13.2 |
+2.5 |
+6.6 |
-3.3 |
+9.9 |
+6.2 |
| 33 |
Daniels |
SEA |
56% |
20.2 |
12.1 |
+8.1 |
+5.7 |
+1.7 |
+4.0 |
+6.0 |
| 34 |
Ilgauskas |
CLE |
71% |
21.1 |
15.8 |
+5.3 |
+3.9 |
-2.4 |
+6.3 |
+5.8 |
| 35 |
Foster |
IND |
39% |
18.1 |
18.1 |
+0.0 |
+6.6 |
-4.7 |
+11.3 |
+5.7 |
| 36 |
Marshall |
TOR |
47% |
22.0 |
17.9 |
+4.1 |
+2.7 |
-4.4 |
+7.1 |
+5.6 |
| 37 |
Gasol |
MEM |
42% |
24.0 |
16.4 |
+7.6 |
+4.8 |
+1.7 |
+3.2 |
+5.4 |
| 38 |
Mutombo |
HOU |
28% |
17.9 |
11.7 |
+6.2 |
+5.9 |
+1.6 |
+4.4 |
+5.3 |
| 39 |
Deng |
CHI |
49% |
15.6 |
12.5 |
+3.1 |
+3.5 |
-3.9 |
+7.4 |
+5.3 |
| 40 |
Harrington |
CHI |
30% |
15.1 |
13.9 |
+1.3 |
+6.2 |
-3.0 |
+9.2 |
+5.2 |
| 41 |
Hoiberg |
MIN |
34% |
19.2 |
15.4 |
+3.8 |
+4.7 |
-1.9 |
+6.6 |
+5.2 |
| 42 |
Barry |
HOU |
30% |
15.5 |
13.0 |
+2.6 |
+8.2 |
+0.5 |
+7.7 |
+5.1 |
| 43 |
Allen |
BOS |
31% |
17.4 |
13.2 |
+4.2 |
+5.8 |
-0.1 |
+5.9 |
+5.0 |
| 44 |
Tinsley |
IND |
41% |
20.1 |
17.0 |
+3.1 |
+3.8 |
-3.1 |
+6.9 |
+5.0 |
| 45 |
B.Wallace |
DET |
66% |
17.7 |
12.9 |
+4.7 |
+5.4 |
+0.2 |
+5.2 |
+5.0 |
| 46 |
Hill |
ORL |
67% |
21.4 |
14.7 |
+6.7 |
-0.3 |
-3.2 |
+2.9 |
+4.8 |
| 47 |
R.Wallace |
DET |
71% |
16.7 |
15.8 |
+0.9 |
+6.2 |
-2.4 |
+8.6 |
+4.8 |
| 48 |
Parker |
SAS |
70% |
20.1 |
13.0 |
+7.1 |
+10.6 |
+8.5 |
+2.1 |
+4.6 |
| 49 |
Andersen |
NOH |
40% |
19.0 |
14.5 |
+4.5 |
-4.1 |
-8.8 |
+4.7 |
+4.6 |
| 50 |
O'Neal |
IND |
46% |
24.5 |
16.7 |
+7.9 |
+0.4 |
-0.9 |
+1.3 |
+4.6 |
| 50 |
Francis |
ORL |
77% |
20.7 |
16.9 |
+3.7 |
-0.1 |
-5.4 |
+5.4 |
+4.6 |
Combining the two player evaluation systems gives Tim Duncan a healthy lead over the trio of Nowitzki, Ginobili, and Kirilenko.
On a purely value based level however, Tayshaun Prince is arguably the current standout, since he ranks #12 in the league by this measure, but with a salary that's reportedly not much more than a million...spare change by today's NBA standards!
|
