Roland Ratings for the '05-06 Rookies
We'll be doing a number of features looking at past drafts and current Roland Ratings, but we'll start if off by looking at the numbers for the 2005-06 season rookies (data includes games through March 12th).
|
PER Difference |
On Court/Off Court |
Roland |
| Pk |
Tm |
Player |
Min |
PER |
Opp |
Net |
On |
Off |
Net |
Rating |
| 1 |
MIL |
Andrew Bogut |
59% |
16.1 |
18.2 |
-2.0 |
-0.8 |
-2.9 |
+2.1 |
-0.9 |
| 2 |
ATL |
Marvin Williams |
48% |
12.3 |
19.2 |
-6.9 |
-3.9 |
-6.2 |
+2.3 |
-4.3 |
| 3 |
*UTA |
Deron Williams |
55% |
11.6 |
17.5 |
-5.8 |
-1.7 |
-4.8 |
+3.1 |
-3.3 |
| 4 |
NOK |
Chris Paul |
70% |
23.8 |
16.3 |
+7.5 |
-2.4 |
+1.3 |
-3.7 |
+4.3 |
| 5 |
CHA |
Raymond Felton |
56% |
14.1 |
14.5 |
-0.3 |
-2.9 |
-6.8 |
+3.9 |
+0.9 |
| 6 |
*POR |
Martell Webster |
20% |
9.0 |
22.4 |
-13.4 |
-12.3 |
-7.0 |
-5.2 |
-11.1 |
| 7 |
TOR |
Charlie Villanueva |
56% |
18.3 |
17.4 |
+0.9 |
-0.3 |
-4.9 |
+4.6 |
+2.0 |
| 8 |
NY |
Channing Frye |
50% |
19.0 |
15.5 |
+3.5 |
-0.8 |
-11.0 |
+10.2 |
+5.4 |
| 9 |
GS |
Ike Diogu |
23% |
14.7 |
18.1 |
-3.5 |
-4.2 |
-0.6 |
-3.6 |
-3.5 |
| 10 |
LAL |
Andrew Bynum |
8% |
9.0 |
17.8 |
-8.7 |
-4.6 |
+2.3 |
-6.9 |
-8.2 |
| 11 |
ORL |
Fran Vazquez |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
LAC |
Yaroslav Korolev |
4% |
5.6 |
7.3 |
-1.8 |
-4.0 |
+2.5 |
-6.5 |
-3.1 |
| 13 |
*CHA |
Sean May |
13% |
16.3 |
20.1 |
-3.8 |
-3.0 |
-4.9 |
+1.9 |
-2.2 |
| 14 |
MIN |
Rashad McCants |
29% |
12.9 |
16.8 |
-3.9 |
-5.8 |
+1.0 |
-6.8 |
-4.8 |
| 15 |
NJ |
Antoine Wright |
10% |
0.5 |
15.7 |
-15.2 |
-10.0 |
+0.9 |
-10.9 |
-13.9 |
| 16 |
*TOR |
Joey Graham |
36% |
9.9 |
19.0 |
-9.1 |
-4.3 |
-1.2 |
-3.1 |
-7.4 |
| 17 |
IND |
Danny Granger |
42% |
14.6 |
16.0 |
-1.4 |
-1.8 |
+5.6 |
-7.4 |
-3.1 |
| 18 |
BOS |
Gerald Green |
2% |
13.4 |
23.6 |
-10.2 |
+0.0 |
-1.5 |
+1.5 |
-6.9 |
| 19 |
MEM |
Hakim Warrick |
19% |
12.7 |
21.0 |
-8.3 |
-4.5 |
+3.6 |
-8.0 |
-8.2 |
| 20 |
*DEN |
Julius Hodge |
1% |
2.5 |
17.9 |
-15.4 |
+3.2 |
+0.9 |
+2.3 |
-10.3 |
| 21 |
*PHO |
Nate Robinson |
34% |
11.3 |
16.8 |
-5.5 |
-1.7 |
-8.1 |
+6.4 |
-2.1 |
| 22 |
DEN |
Jarrett Jack |
40% |
11.5 |
15.5 |
-4.0 |
-11.2 |
-6.0 |
-5.2 |
-4.4 |
| 23 |
SAC |
Francisco Garcia |
37% |
11.2 |
10.7 |
+0.5 |
+0.7 |
+1.6 |
-0.9 |
+0.1 |
| 24 |
HOU |
Luther Head |
52% |
11.0 |
16.1 |
-5.1 |
-0.1 |
-1.4 |
+1.3 |
-3.3 |
| 25 |
SEA |
Johan Petro |
29% |
10.7 |
21.9 |
-11.2 |
-5.1 |
-4.0 |
-1.1 |
-8.3 |
| 26 |
DET |
Jason Maxiell |
3% |
5.8 |
22.5 |
-16.7 |
-33.9 |
+8.5 |
-42.4 |
-24.0 |
| 27 |
*POR |
Linas Kleiza (Den) |
13% |
14.9 |
17.1 |
-2.1 |
+0.2 |
+1.0 |
-0.8 |
-1.7 |
| 28 |
SA |
Ian Mahinmi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 29 |
MIA |
Wayne Simien |
8% |
10.5 |
18.6 |
-8.1 |
-6.6 |
+5.1 |
-11.6 |
-9.1 |
| 30 |
*NY |
David Lee |
25% |
15.8 |
19.6 |
-3.8 |
-4.3 |
-6.5 |
+2.2 |
-2.1 |
| 31 |
ATL |
Salim Stoudamire |
40% |
13.5 |
14.0 |
-0.6 |
-3.9 |
-5.9 |
+2.0 |
+0.1 |
| 32 |
*LAC |
Daniel Ewing |
27% |
8.3 |
18.2 |
-9.9 |
-2.1 |
+3.9 |
-6.0 |
-8.8 |
| 33 |
NOK |
Brandon Bass |
5% |
9.3 |
10.8 |
-1.5 |
-7.6 |
-1.0 |
-6.6 |
-3.0 |
| 34 |
UTA |
CJ Miles |
4% |
9.1 |
20.6 |
-11.5 |
+8.9 |
-3.6 |
+12.6 |
-4.6 |
| 35 |
POR |
Ricky Sanchez |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 36 |
MIL |
Ersan Ilyasova |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 37 |
*LAL |
Ronny Turiaf |
2% |
10.8 |
24.5 |
-13.6 |
+0.9 |
+1.7 |
-0.9 |
-10.0 |
| 38 |
*ORL |
Travis Diener |
8% |
14.1 |
21.5 |
-7.4 |
-9.8 |
-2.3 |
-7.5 |
-7.4 |
| 39 |
LAL |
Von Wafer |
2% |
-1.3 |
19.9 |
-21.2 |
-16.5 |
+2.2 |
-18.7 |
-20.5 |
| 40 |
GS |
Monta Ellis |
14% |
9.8 |
15.5 |
-5.6 |
+1.2 |
-1.8 |
+3.1 |
-3.1 |
| 41 |
*TOR |
Roko Ukic |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 42 |
*GS |
Chris Taft |
5% |
16.2 |
18.1 |
-2.0 |
+3.3 |
-1.6 |
+5.0 |
|
| 43 |
NJ |
Mile Ilic |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 44 |
*ORL |
Andriuskevicius (Cle) |
0% |
16.5 |
4.5 |
+12.0 |
+56.5 |
+1.6 |
+54.9 |
+24.3 |
| 45 |
*PHI |
Louis Williams |
3% |
9.3 |
21.0 |
-11.7 |
-15.8 |
-0.8 |
-15.0 |
-12.6 |
| 46 |
IND |
Erazem Lorbek |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 47 |
MIN |
Bracey Wright |
0% |
10.8 |
38.4 |
-27.6 |
+12.7 |
-1.0 |
+13.8 |
-15.8 |
| 48 |
*SEA |
Mickaël Gelabale |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 49 |
WAS |
Andray Blatche |
4% |
14.4 |
20.2 |
-5.8 |
+7.2 |
+1.4 |
+5.8 |
-2.5 |
| 50 |
BOS |
Ryan Gomes |
25% |
15.7 |
15.0 |
+0.6 |
+1.0 |
-2.3 |
+3.3 |
+1.4 |
| 51 |
*UTA |
Robert Whaley |
7% |
8.2 |
20.4 |
-12.2 |
-10.0 |
-2.6 |
-7.4 |
-10.8 |
| 52 |
DEN |
Axel Hervelle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 53 |
*BOS |
Orien Greene |
30% |
6.5 |
18.7 |
-12.2 |
-4.6 |
-0.1 |
-4.5 |
-10.0 |
| 54 |
*NY |
Dijon Thompson (Pho) |
1% |
23.7 |
1.4 |
+22.3 |
-12.4 |
+6.7 |
-19.1 |
+10.5 |
| 55 |
SEA |
Lawrence Roberts |
5% |
12.1 |
21.4 |
-9.3 |
-1.6 |
+2.2 |
-3.8 |
-7.7 |
| 56 |
DET |
Amir Johnson |
0% |
-18.2 |
-13.7 |
-4.6 |
-49.4 |
+7.4 |
-56.9 |
-19.5 |
| 57 |
*PHO |
Marcin Gortat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 58 |
*TOR |
Uros Slokar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 59 |
*ATL |
Cenk Akyol |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 60 |
*DET |
Alex Acker |
0% |
-30.8 |
42.1 |
-72.9 |
-204.9 |
+7.7 |
-212.6 |
-112.8 |
So with our wonderful color coding, the positive 'roland rating' players are highlighted in green, the slightly negative white, and the negatives of -4 or more are in blue. Clearly guys with minimal playing time should have their ratings disregarded since you need a decent sample of meaninful minutes to make any kind of judgement. It's also worth noting a lot of rookies do improve over the course of the season.
For some leaderboards on different measures, you'll find:
[Minimum 15% of team minutes played]
PER
23.8 - Paul
19.0 - Frye
18.3 - Villaneuva
16.1 - Bogut
15.8 - Lee
Opp Production
10.7 - Garcia
14.0 - Stoudamire
14.1 - Felton
15.0 - Gomes
15.5 - Frye, Jack
PER Difference
+7.5 - Paul
+3.5 - Frye
+0.9 - Villaneuva
+0.6 - Gomes
+0.5 - Garcia
On Court +/- per 48 minutes
+1.0 - Gomes
+0.7 - Garcia
-0.1 - Head
-0.3 - Villaneuva
-0.8 - Frye, Bogut
On/Off Net +/-
+10.2 - Frye
+6.4 - Robinson
+4.6 - Villaneuva
+3.9 - Felton
+3.3 - Gomes
So is Chris Paul the runaway rookie of the year? You could argue that Channing Frye has the better Roland Rating to this point, but we like to take into account the playing time, and if you multiply the Min% by the Roland Rating, it looks like this:
+3.0 - Chris Paul
+2.7 - Channing Frye
+1.1 - Charlie Villaneuva
+0.5 - Raymond Felton
+0.3 - Ryan Gomes
Steal of the draft to this point? That would appear to be Ryan Gomes who sports the fourth best rating, and fifth best "impact" above, while being drafted #50! On the other hand it's hard to talk of busts at this stage since a number of guys were picked with the understanding that it might be several years before any kind of payoff.
Still if you're looking at the four college seniors taken with Roland Ratings of -6 or below, and also 15% of the playing time, then you're perhaps concerned about their prospects of sticking in the league:
Joey Graham -7.4
Hakim Warrick -8.2
Daniel Ewing -8.8
Orien Greene -10.0
As alluded to at the start, follow ups to this will look at how past draft classes are shaping up a few years down the road...
Do you have an idea for a cool "random stat" you would like to see? If so, drop us a line
Random Stat Archive
Two Way Players (3/08)
Jump Ball winning % (3/07)
"At the Rim" Shots (3/05)
Game Winning Shots (2/27)
Team Quarter by Quarter results (2/23)
Points per FGA (2/21)
Player Assisted% on FGM (2/15)
Types of Turnovers (2/12)
Goaltending "Leaders" (2/10)
Shot Clock Studs (2/09)
Team Starter/Bench stats (2/07)
Free Throw shooting home versus away (2/04)
Who gets their shot blocked the most? (2/03)
Plus/Minus stats over the last 30 days (2/02)
What percentage of the time has each team been leading? (2/01)
