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Under 25 Breakout Stars9/25/08 - by Eric Wong AKA RotoEvil Can Charlie V. step up his game like Rudy G. did last year?
In my last article, I examined the circumstances surrounding the "career years" of players between the ages of 25 and 28 years old. This article is similar, but geared towards players in the younger age bracket, who are much harder to predict. Since most players under 24 have only begun to scratch the surface of their potential, we don't really know what their statistical ceilings are. I mean, it's easy to project stats for 10-year veterans, but much harder to do so for 22-year olds with potential. Sometimes, these youngsters improve by leaps and bounds seemingly overnight, and the fantasy owners who gamble on them are handsomely rewarded. But of course, this is a double-edged sword, because if you set your expectations too high for a player who's not ready to take that step forward (see: Tyrus Thomas and Andrea Bargnani last season), then you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Below, I have listed 3 players who were under 25 years old last year and shattered expectations. If you drafted one of them, your team was rock solid. If you drafted two, you probably won your league. And if you drafted all three, there's no doubt you dominated. So in this article, I will also give you 2 of my top Under 25 picks who may take their games to the next level this season. *EXCLUSIVE* to my NBA Fantasy Draft Guide will be an article that identifies 6 more players under the age of 25. Five of them are guys who I think are ready to take that giant leap forward, while one of them may take a step backward and disappoint. Enjoy! Under 25 Breakout Stars in '07-08
Rudy Gay21 years old, 2nd seasonRudy Gay's rookie year was solid but unspectacular, as he averaged a modest 10.8 points and .7 threes in 27 minutes per game, while shooting a sub-par 42.2% FG and 72.7% FT. Yes, we knew he was an explosive athlete who could rack up steals, blocks, and dunks, but few people expected him to turn into an elite small forward this quickly.In just his 2nd year in the NBA, he was given the green light on offense (only 11 players attempted more shots last season!), and he responded with 20.1 points and 1.7 treys per game. He was also a much more accurate shooter, improving to a solid 46.2% FG and 78.5% FT. Thanks to his increase in minutes, he also ranked in the Top 20 in steals and the Top 40 in blocks. The result was someone who was barely a Top 150 player the year before playing like a 3rd Rounder at just 21 years of age. They don't happen very often, but if you can predict more Rudy Gay-type seasons, you will be very successful in fantasy hoops. 
Monta Ellis22 years old, 3rd seasonMonta went from being a Top 60 player in '06-07 to a Top 30 player in '07-08, which wasn't bad considering he came off the bench for 9 of the first 12 games. After that, he was virtually unstoppable, shooting 53.5% from the field and scoring nearly 21 points per game as a starter. He finished 15th in steals and 35th in assists, but was much better in both after the All-Star break, when he averaged 1.9 steals and 4.6 dimes per game. He also used his hops to lead ALL guards with 1.64 offensive rebounds per game, was the top dunker under 6-4, and even managed to block a shot every 3 games.The biggest improvement for Monta's fantasy value was the fact that he cut back on shooting threes. In his first 2 seasons, he attempted 225 threes in 126 games, but he attempted just 52 treys in 81 games in '07-08. Considering how much more accurate he is inside the arc, it was a smart move that paid off. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of his breakout season was that some of his owners were still willing to trade him. This is probably because they weren't watching him play, so surely they expected his stellar FG% to eventually fall. Well, it never happened, and those of you who had Ellis last year know how valuable he really was. 
Danny Granger24 years old, 3rd seasonI don't have the stats to prove it, but I'm pretty sure that Granger was on more winning fantasy teams last season than any other player. He got a lot of minutes in '06-07 (34.0 mpg), but he didn't do much with them, averaging a modest 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, .8 steals, .7 blocks, and 1.3 threes per game. His per minute stats in '05-06 as a rookie were actually much better, which was somewhat puzzling.However, he blossomed beautifully in his 3rd NBA season. Granger brought his assists, steals, and blocks up to his previous per minute levels, and he was a much deadlier player on offense. His 2.1 threes per game was 10th in the league and his 40.4% 3P ranked 26th. Meanwhile, he also ranked 19th in FT%, 31st in scoring, and 33rd in free throws made. The result was an incredibly unheralded player who finished the season as a Top 20 fantasy player in 8-cat leagues and a Top 15 player in 9-cat leagues. If a player shows solid per minute potential as a rookie, but then regresses in his 2nd season, don't count him out just yet. Danny Granger proved that, indeed, the 3rd time can be a charm. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Under 25 Breakout Stars for '08-09
Charlie Villanueva24 years old, 4th seasonLike Rudy Gay, Villanueva is a long athletic forward who attended the University of Connecticut. However, despite being 2 years older than Gay, Charlie V. has yet to blossom in the NBA. He had a promising rookie season with Toronto, but he hasn't lived up to expectations since being traded to Milwaukee for TJ Ford. His '06-07 season was derailed by injuries, but people expected him to bounce back in '07-08. Instead, he got inconsistent minutes, struggled with his shot, and averaged career-lows in minutes, points, steals, FG%, and 3P%. '08-09 will be a make or break season for Villanueva, and here are several reasons why he'll take that leap forward.For starters, he'll be the starting power forward on opening night. Last year, the Bucks handed the starting gig over to rookie Yi Jianlian from the get-go, which surely hurt Charlie's confidence. Yi was traded to New Jersey over the summer, and the Bucks replaced him by drafting the athletic Joe Alexander and signing veteran Malik Allen. However, Alexander is far from being a polished product and Allen has no upside and little offense to speak of, so Villanueva should have no problem getting 30+ minutes per game this season. He actually averaged 30.3 mpg after the All-Star break, and put up a solid 15.1 points, 7.7 boards, .8 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.0 threes in 27 games. Those numbers are pretty good, but he shot just 42.7% FG during that span, which limited his fantasy value. The addition of Luke Ridnour and the presence of Ramon Sessions for an entire season at PG should help out Charlie V. quite a bit. Mo Williams was more of a scorer, but both Ridnour & Sessions are pass-first point guards. The 24-year old can run the floor well, and he'll likely be rewarded more often this season. The addition of a proven scorer in Richard Jefferson should also open things up and put less pressure on him. As a result, I see his FG% climbing back up over 46% where it belongs. If Villanueva can pump up his steals, blocks, threes, and FG% like Gay did last season, then he could be one of the top breakout players in '08-09. 
Trevor Ariza23 years old, 5th seasonThere have been recent rumblings out of Los Angeles that Lamar Odom could come off the bench this season. If it happens, Trevor Ariza is going to start at small forward. It's a move that makes a lot of sense, as Ariza is a much better defender at the "3" spot and doesn't need the ball in his hands all the time on offense. Bringing Odom off the bench allows the Lakers to use him as their #1 scorer on the 2nd unit, and a guy that they can go to when Kobe or Pau is resting. While this will surely hurt Odom's fantasy value, it could give Ariza's a huge boost.After playing in 80 games as a 19-year old rookie for the Knicks, Trevor has been traded twice and hasn't played more than 57 games in a season due to injuries. As a result, he hasn't developed as quickly as other players, but the talent and athleticism is still there. Standing 6-8 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Ariza's body is very similar to Rudy Gay's. His vertical isn't quite as good, but he's also an explosive leaper who can throw it down in traffic. With Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum, the Lakers don't need another player to feed the ball to in the their starting lineup. They need a slasher, and that's exactly what Ariza is. He uses his length and tenacity on defense to rack up steals, as evidenced by his career average of 1.9 steals per 36 minutes. He's also a very good rebounder for his size, averaging 7+ boards per 36 minutes in each of the past 3 seasons. And since he takes high quality shots, his FG% has also been rock solid: 50.7% FG last year, 53.9% FG the year before. However, his major weakness is his outside shot. In the first 205 games of his NBA career, he made only 4 threes on 28 attempts (1 attempt every 135 minutes, 14.3% 3P). But surprisingly, he shot 5-15 from beyond the arc in just 24 games for the Lakers. Is this a sign for the future? Teams will likely sag off of him so he'll get plenty of open looks, and if Phil Jackson encourages him to shoot and he has confidence in his outside shot, he could make a lot more threes this year. This would increase his fantasy value even further, making him an excellent late round pick with upside. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- More Breakout Stars in '08-09 = ???This list of players is a little shorter than previous ones, but for good reason. You need to be cautious when trying to predict breakout seasons for young players, and you certainly DON'T want to draft a roster loaded with young players just because they have "potential." So rather than give you a dozen more names, I have chosen only my Top 5 youngsters to draft in '08-09. And if they play like Rudy, Monta, and Danny did last year, you're going to be in very good shape.Mad props to Evil for helping me win my league for the second year in a row. |
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