Home | Teams/Players | Commentary | Fantasy | Contact Us

Small Forward Rankings (For the Stretch Run)

by Eric Wong AKA Roto Evil

March 6th, 2008

This LeBron James fellow is pretty special, eh?

Remember, these rankings are based on how I see each player finishing out the season.

The # of games left is important for most people, so I've factored this in and included the weekly schedule for each player in parentheses (starting with Monday, March 3rd).

Playing time can drastically change down the stretch, so this has been taken into account as well. If a team will be fighting for a playoff spot or a top seed until the very end, that bodes well for the stats of their top players. If a team has a playoff spot locked up already (see: Detroit Pistons), they'll probably choose to rest their starters down the stretch. If a team is out of the playoff race already, they may or may not continue to give their top players big minutes. I've tried to evaluate each player on a case-by-case basis.

Level 10 - Best of the Best

LeBron James (22 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Blah blah blah. What needs to be said about LeBron James? Nothing. You just need to witness and drop your jaw, over and over and over. If someone tries to tell you how amazing he is, just cover your ears "Hear no Evil" style because you already KNOW that. I will say this. His key stats are up about 20% over last year, but his overall fantasy value is STILL just 75% of what it could be. Take his current shooting percentages: 48.7% FG, 31.2% 3P, 70.8% FT. Now imagine those being: 52% FG, 38% 3P, 78% FT. Those numbers are possible, and they would easily send his value from 75% potential to 90% potential. But that's what makes LeBron so great. That last 10% of his potential is unknown. A 1% improvement in his game is like a 12% improvement in the "normal" NBA player's game. There is no ceiling to LeBron and you can't quantify how much he can improve or how legendary he can become. Are your ears covered now?

Level 9 - Fantasy's Finest

Caron Butler (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Butler has been out for a month with a labral tear in his left hip, but the Washington Post reported good news today. Someone close to Butler says that his hip is improving and he hopes to start practicing again in the next 2 weeks. That's good news, and if he returns for the last month of the season, he'll deserve my Level 9 status. Butler turns 28 next week and is in the prime of his career. The Wizards are trying to get healthy for the playoffs and I'm sure Arenas & Butler are eager to try and knock off one of the top teams. If you trade Butler now, you're going to regret it.

Carmelo Anthony (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1)

'Melo has been a top 10 fantasy player over the past month, averaging 27.2 points on impressive 51.2% FG and 87.2% FT shooting, while pumping up his boards (8.4), blocks (.8), and threes (1.0). If you're in a tight blocks battle like me, those extra blocks from Melo are quite helpful. Denver NEEDS him to keep playing like this is they want to make the playoffs.

Level 8 - Stud Superstars

Stephen Jackson (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Captain Jack recently said that if he can walk onto the floor, he's going to play. He's a Warrior in every sense of the word, and his team needs him. He's not 100%, but he's still played 42+ minutes in 9 of his last 13 games. Over the past month, he's knocking down a ridiculous 3.2 threes per game as well as excellent all-around numbers. As long as he can walk, he's one of the top small forwards in the league.

Rudy Gay (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Gay is shooting just 41.3% from the field since the break, but the absence of Mike Miller probably played a part in that. The rest of his numbers remain rock solid, and they will till the end of the season. He and LeBron are the only players in the league to average 1.5 threes, 1.5 steals, and .75 blocks per game. And while Gay doesn't dish out any assists, he's making 78.5% of his free throws. Don't let him fall past the 3rd round next year!

Danny Granger (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Granger has been phenomenal this season. Check out his numbers over the past 2 months: 35.8 minutes, 20.7 points, 5.9 boards, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks, 2.3 threes, 44% FG, 94.5% FT. Look at that free throw shooting. Just a few weeks ago, he broke Reggie Miller's Pacers record for most frees throws in a row without a miss. Reggie's record was 61. Granger hit 65. Where were all the headlines? This dude is a stud.

Paul Pierce (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Pierce has been one of top small forwards in the league for nearly a decade now, but he's still only 30 years old. I'm curious, if the Celtics win it all this year, will you consider Pierce a legit Hall of Famer? One concern for fantasy owners is that his minutes will decline in April to rest him up for the playoffs, so I put him at the bottom of this level.

Level 7 - Premium Picks

Corey Maggette (25 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Maggette is averaging 38.6 minutes, 24.9 points, 5.8 boards, 3.2 assists, 1.4 threes, and .7 steals, and 87.1% FT on 10.5 attempts per game over the past month. The Clippers play more games than anybody down the stretch, but I'm placing him on Level 7 for a few reasons. 1) His minutes, points, shot attempts, and rebounds are bound to come down. Kaman was out for awhile, but he's back to get his, and Tim Thomas and Brand are waiting to come back as well. 2) Al Thornton is playing too well recently to suddenly bench him. So when those guys come back, the proven Maggette may rest more often rather than the rookie. 3) He's already missed 9 games this season, has played 75+ games just twice in his career, and could easily get hurt down the stretch. If he does, the Clips don't need him to play thru it. They need ping-pong balls!

Andre Iguodala (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Iggy is not the most consistent fantasy player (he shot 81.2% from the line in December, but just 62.5% in February), but his monster games make up for that. Philly currently holds the #7 spot in the East, so expect Iggy to put up superstar numbers down the strech. If his team played a couple more games, he would have been in Level 8.

Hedo Turkoglu (21 games - 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2)

Turkoglu's 19.5 points, 2 threes, and 83.5% FT shooting is superb, but he's much more than just a shooter. His 4.8 dimes per game ranks 2nd (far behind LeBron) among all small forwards and he chips in plenty of boards, blocks, and steals. The only negative is Orlando's weak schedule down the strech.

Peja Stojakovic (24 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Peja is rollin' right now. Over the past month, he's averaging 18.3 points and 3.4 threes per game on 46.7% FG and 91.7% FT. Despite playing 3 more games than Hedo, I'm ranking him below his former buddy because he doesn't contribute in other cats like Turkoglu does. Still, he can single-handedly carry your team in one category, and there are very few players who can do that.

Level 6 - Solid Starters

Shane Battier (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Battier is going to be a Level 6 player with Yao out. Over his last 5 games, he's averaging 12 points, 6.8 boards, 3 assists, .8 steals, 2.2 blocks, and 2.2 threes per game. There's no doubt about it: Shane Battier is the most valuable player in the league (reality AND fantasy) NOT averaging 10 points or more!

Mike Miller (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Miller is back after missing 7 games with a sore back, so hopefully he finishes the season healthy. He currently ranks 9th in threes per game and 10th in 3P%, but he helps out in other areas as well. His 51.2% FG ranks 2nd (behind Childress) and his 3.5 dimes per game ranks 6th among all small forwards. Memphis doesn't have much to play for now, but how else is going to score?

Ron Artest (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Artest has been a top 40 fantasy player for most of the season, but I worry about how he'll finish down the stretch. He sat out Wednesday's game with a sore foot, and has no reason to play thru an injury at this point. John Salmons and Francisco Garcia have enjoyed breakout years, and the Kings may want to continue giving them solid minutes to close out the season. If you can land a Level 7 or 8 player for him, I would go for it.

Level 5 - Okay Options

Jamario Moon (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Over the past month, Moon is averaging 28 minutes, 10.7 points, 6.1 boards, 1.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game to go along with a very impressive 54.8% FG and 82.4% FT shooting. He's already one of the best guys for steals and blocks, and now the Raptors need him to pull down more boards with Bosh out.

Richard Jefferson (23 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

R-Jeff started the season on fire, but his ppg has declined every month since. He's making more threes now, but he's not getting to the line as much, so his solid 80% FT isn't as helpful as it used to be. Based on name recognition, you might be able to land a Level 6 or 7 player for him.

Luol Deng (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

It's been a disappointing season for Deng, but he's back in the starting lineup and could have a strong finish. Over the last 5 games, his overall numbers are very solid: 16.8 points, 8 boards, 3.6 dimes, 1.6 steals, and .4 blocks per game. If someone dropped him when he was hurt, pick him up ASAP!

Grant Hill (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

If you drafted Hill, you've already gotten a nice return from him. The guy can still play at a very high level, and he's helping out in every single category. He should be solid down the stretch, but you shouldn't get mad at him if he's not.

Josh Howard (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 1)

I was going to call out Josh Howard, but I just read that two of his family members recently died and he's struggling with a bad back. After combining for 3.3 threes + steals + blocks per game last year, he's averaging just 2.1 total this season. As a result, his fantasy value has plummeted. J-Ho is still capable of playing like a top 30 player (in reality and fantasy), but he's really struggling right now.

Level 4 - Borderline Ballers

Josh Childress (24 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

For the season, J-Chill is shooting a remarkable 58.5% from the field and 82% from the line. He doesn't make many threes, but he helps out with .9 steals and .5 blocks per game. He's a decent option down the stretch.

Ricky Davis (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Ricky had been pretty worthless for the past 2 months, but he could finish the season strong. Dorell Wright is out for the season, so he's going to play a much bigger role, and his minutes could go thru the roof if D. Wade shuts it down. He dropped 16 points, 3 assists, 2 steals, and a three in 37 minutes in his last game, and is worth taking a flier on if you need help in those cats.

Mickael Pietrus (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Pietrus wanted a trade, but he's still on the Warriors and they need him to contribute. MP has done just that. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 25 minutes, 9.5 points, 1.4 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 1.5 threes per game on 49% FG shooting. He's hot right now, but it may or may not last the rest of the season.

Jeff Green (23 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Seattle's trades opened up a lot more minutes for Green, and he's going to get plenty of opportunities down the stretch for Seattle. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 32.5 minutes, 11.9 points, 6.5 boards, .8 steals, .5 blocks, and .5 threes per game. Give him a look if you need a decent forward.

Andrei Kirilenko (22 games - 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

AK 47 has had a nice all-around season and his 20 point, 11 rebound, 11 assist, 6 steal, 4 block, 1 three performance vs. the Lakers on 11/30 remains one of my favorite fantasy performances of the season. However, he took a nasty fall the other day and his recent stats haven't been that impressive. When you add in the fact that next week is Utah's final 4 game week, he's just a borderline option now.

Level 3 - Respectable Reserves

Andres Nocioni (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Nocioni is one of my favorite Bulls, but his value is limited right now. He played just 19 minutes today and Sefolosha wasn't even available. When he gets minutes, he's capable of scoring a lot of points and hitting threes in bunches, but he doesn't get many rebounds, assists, or steals. He has 6 games with 4 treys or more, so hang onto him if you need threes.

Tayshaun Prince (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Prince has been a borderline fantasy player all season long, and he'll be even shakier down the stretch. The same thing I said about the rest of the Pistons applies to Prince as well. He averaged 36.6 mpg in '06-07, but just 30.1 mpg in April that year. He averaged 35.3 mpg in '05-06, but just 29.9 mpg in April that year. He's a decent plugin in case one of your guys is hurt, but nothing more. Have you seen his cousin JP play for Tennessee? Many similarities.

Marvin Williams (24 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Marvin is having a solid season, but he's really struggling right now. Over the past month, he's averaging just 11.3 points on 36.3% FG shooting, and isn't getting enough steals and blocks to make up for it. Thanks to the Hawks schedule, he's worth hanging onto in case he gets hot, but don't expect too much out of him down the stretch.

Ryan Gomes (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2)

If Gomes got 36 mpg all season long, he would have been superb. Unfortunately, Randy Wittman limits his minutes sometimes and Gomes throws up stinkers. His all around stats are solid, but he doesn't really excel in one category. He might be able to help you out down the stretch, but I wouldn't want to rely on him right now.

Corey Brewer (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Brewer has a lot of fantasy potential, but he's a ways away from achieving it. He's averaging a solid 1.3 steals and .4 blocks per game since the All-Star break, but his shooting has been awful all season long. He can help if you need steals, but don't expect much else.

James Posey (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Posey is a solid backup forward who can help you out in threes and steals. He has just 10 total points over his last 4 games, but his minutes could go up down the stretch if Boston decides to rest their stars.

Level 2 - Potential Pickups

For Threes:

Linas Kleiza (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1)
Francisco Garcia (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Bostjan Nachbar (23 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)
Jarvis Hayes (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)
Ime Udoka (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)
James Jones (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

For Assists / Steals:

Damien Wilkins (23 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1)
Luke Walton (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)

For Blocks:

Desmond Mason (22 games - 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2)
Wilson Chandler (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Check out my new site!

Questions or comments? Send me an email: RotoEvil@82games.com