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Point Guard Rankings (For the Stretch Run)

by Eric Wong AKA Roto Evil

March 2nd, 2008 Chris Paul & Deron Williams

It's the stretch run for fantasy owners, so now is a good time to evaluate all of the top players. I've grouped them into "levels" or tiers. Level 10 players are the "Best of the Best" and Level 1 players you don't even want to think about owning.

These rankings are based on how I see each player finishing out the season.

The # of games left is important for most people, so I've factored this in and included the weekly schedule for each player in parentheses (starting with Monday, March 3rd).

Playing time can drastically change down the stretch, so this has been taken into account as well. If a team will be fighting for a playoff spot or a top seed until the very end, that bodes well for the stats of their top players. If a team has a playoff spot locked up already (see: Detroit Pistons), they'll probably choose to rest their starters down the stretch. If a team is out of the playoff race already, they may or may not continue to give their top players big minutes. I've tried to evaluate each player on a case-by-case basis.

For those of you looking to make last-minute trades, the separate levels I've created should be helpful. I obviously don't recommend trading a Level 7 guy for a Level 6 straight up. For 2-for-1 trades, I suggest following a "50% rule." This means I would only consider trading away 1 stud for 2 lesser players if their total value is greater than 1.5 times the Level number. So, would I trade away Nash (9) for Billups (6) + Ford (5)? No way. Conversely, trading away 2 players for 1 stud is fine as long as the total value you're giving up isn't 50% greater than the player in return. Let me know if you find these rankings beneficial. Enjoy!

Level 10 - Best of the Best

Chris Paul (24 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Is there any doubt who the best of the best is? Chris Paul is having a remarkable season and it doesn't look like anything can slow him down. Just look at his last 2 games: 24 points, 16 assists, and 5 steals in a win over Utah and Deron and 25 points, 15 assists, and 3 steals in a win over Phoenix and Nash. I have him and David West on one of my teams and, not surprisingly, that team is winning its league. Not too long ago, I said I would pick CP3 third behind LeBron and Superman if I was starting a franchise today. Someone responded that they would even take him before the Man-Beast, and I'm starting to agree with that decision. This kid is unreal.

Level 9 - Fantasy's Finest

Baron Davis (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Baron is doing it all this season. He currently ranks 2nd in steals, 6th in minutes, 7th in assists, 10th in threes, and 14th in points per game. He also ranks 1st in blocks and 2nd in boards among all point guards, hence the term "fantasy's finest." He's logged a lot of minutes this season, but the Warriors will need him to stay on the floor so they can secure another trip to the playoffs. Quite simply, Baron is one of the few guards who can carry your team down the stretch.

Steve Nash (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Nash is having another superb season, and his stats reflect that. Amazingly, he's averaging 11.5 dimes and shooting over 50% from the field for the 3rd time in 4 years. His numbers have gone down a bit with Shaq in the lineup, but I believe that's just a result of their tough competition (Boston, Detroit, New Orleans). The Suns would probably like to rest Nash down the stretch, but they don't really have that luxury.

Allen Iverson (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1)

Iverson might be having the best year of his career. His 45% FG shooting is his highest mark in 10 years and his 2.22 assist/ turnover ratio is far and away the best of his career. He also ranks 7th in steals, meaning he'll finish in the top 10 in that cat for the 12th year in a row! Denver is fighting for their playoff lives right now, so expect AI to finish the season strong.

Level 8 - Stud Superstars

Deron Williams (22 games - 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

If the Jazz played 1 extra game, I would have kept Deron in Level 9. Still, Williams is a stud superstar who can carry your team down the stretch. Deron's shooting %'s were very mediocre last year (45.6% FG, 32.2% 3P, 76.7% FT), but he's improved those numbers drastically this season (51.3% FG, 41.1% 3P, 79.9% FT). I'm not really sold on Jason Hart and Ronnie Price as backups, so don't expect Deron to rest much down the stretch.

Jason Kidd (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 1)

The trade to Dallas has done wonders for Kidd's fantasy value. The Mavs are a much better offensive team than the Nets, so Kidd has managed to pump up BOTH his points and assists. Over his last 5 games, he's averaging 13.2 points, 7.4 boards, 11 assists, 3 steals, and 1.4 threes per game on a solid 47.4% from the field. Dallas doesn't have a great schedule down the stretch, but Kidd is still going to post excellent all-around numbers for your team.

Level 7 - Premium Picks

Mike Bibby (24 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

The Hawks have been searching for a good PG for years now, and they finally got their man (kind of). Over Bibby's last 5 games, he's averaging 14.4 points, 8.6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 threes per game. He was dishing out only 5 dimes per game in Sactown, but Atlanta's young guns can finish much better around the basket. I watched him play a week ago and his heel seemed to be causing him a lot of pain, but it looks like he can play thru it no problem. The Hawks have missed the playoffs 9 years in a row, and Bibby will do everything in his powers to end that streak.

Jose Calderon (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

When TJ Ford was out, Calderon played like a top 10 fantasy player. Based on his excellent shooting %'s (53.9% FG, 46.4% 3P, and 92.1% FT) and his league-dominating 5.17 assist/ turnover ratio, you can argue that he's the most efficient offensive PG in the league. If you have him on your team and you're not in 1st place, then the rest of your players haven't stepped up. TJ Ford is starting to find his form, but that just means the Ocho will be a Level 7 player instead of Level 9.

Andre Miller (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

If they make it, Philly will be the most surprising playoff team for me, so I give Maurice Cheeks a lot of credit. Of course, Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller deserve some credit as well. Dre got off to a slow start, but he's been on fire recently. In February, he averaged 19.7 points, 4.8 boards, 8.2 assists, and 1.5 steals on 55% FG and 82% FT shooting. He doesn't make threes, but you can't complain when he's putting up numbers like that. With Philly trying to secure a playoff spot, expect a strong finish from Miller.

Mo Williams (22 games - 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Mo Williams is quietly having a stellar season. His shooting %'s are rock solid (47.6% FG, 39.3% 3P, 86.1% FT) and he's improved his assists while cutting back on his turnovers. He had a monster 37 point, 7 rebound, 6 assist performance vs. Cleveland last week, and the Bucks have time for one last playoff push. Since Royal Ivey isn't exactly a top prospect, Williams should be a nice start the rest of the way.

Level 6 - Solid Starters

Dwyane Wade (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Talk about a brutal season for D. Wade. He's tried to do everything for Miami while being nowhere near 100%. It would be very easy for him to shut it down, but he says that he wants to play as much as he can to help this team win. Of course, conventional wisdom says that Miami will force him to sit sooner or later. This prevents me from placing him on a higher level. Ride him while you can, but prepare to finish the season without him.

Chauncey Billups (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Billups is the man. Think about how much hype other point guards get: Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, even an injured Glbert Arenas. Meanwhile, CB just quietly takes care of bizness. With the game on the line, he can still can play suffocating D and he's still Mr. Big Shot. Chauncey's mpg decline in April isn't as drastic as Sheed's, but it's still going to happen: In '06-07, he averaged 36.2 mpg for the season, but just 31.1 mpg in April. In '05-06, he averaged 36.1 mpg for the season, but just 29.8 mpg in April. In '04-05, he averaged 35.8 mpg for the season, but just 31.7 mpg in April. Billups' current mpg is just 33.2, and the Pistons will surely want to give Stuckey, Lindsey Hunter, and Juan Dixon decent minutes down the stretch. He can still put up starter-worthy stats in limited minutes, but pay attention to this.

Rafer Alston (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Alston has been a top 60 fantasy player over the past 2 months, which is superb value when you consider that he fell past pick #140 in most drafts (I drafted him in 2 of my 3 leagues, thank you very much). He's an excellent source of threes, assists, and steals, but I'm pretty worried about the loss of Yao. He'll look to score more, but without the big man commanding attention, his already poor FG% will fall even further, and his assists will likely decline as well. Still, the Rockets will need Skip to My Lou to play at a very high level for them to make the playoffs, so he'll remain a solid starter.

Raymond Felton (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Felton has had a decent season for Charlotte, but he still hasn't taken his game to the next level. He shot a respectable 35.8% beyond the arc as a rookie, but that number plummeted to 33% last year and just 26.6% this season. That's the OPPOSITE trend of Chris Paul (not a good sign). Raymond is averaging 14.1 points, 6.9 dimes, and 1.2 steals per game this year, but he needs 37.6 minutes to do so, which is not impressive at all. However, his scoring has gone way up with Gerald Wallace out, so I bumped him up to level 6.

Level 5 - Okay Options

Tony Parker (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Parker was superb in November (20.6 points, 7.3 dimes, 52.5% FG), but he's had to battle injuries and his stats have been rather sub-par since. However, he dropped 26 points on 11-16 shooting on Saturday and followed that up with 25 points on 10-18 shooting on Sunday, so he appears to be back on track. The Spurs are fighting for a top seed, so Parker should be a decent starter down the stretch.

Devin Harris (23 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Devin Harris has gotten off to a great start in New Jersey. In 2 games off the bench, he's averaged 25.5 minutes, 21 points, 3.5 assists, .5 steals, and 3.5 threes. Harris attempted just 70 threes in 39 games with Dallas, so the fact that he's launched 14 threes in 2 games with the Nets is quite surprising. I'm not sure if he'll continue to make threes, but Harris is great at racking up steals and getting to the line and converting his free throws. His new teammates and his lack of assists prevents me from placing him in Level 6.

Beno Udrih (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Beno Udrih got out of Tony Parker's shadow and busted out in a big way this season. In 38 starts for Sacramento, he's averaged 14.1 points, 5.1 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 threes per game on 46.4% FG and 86.1% FT. The Kings got rid of Bibby and seem to like Udrih as their point guard of the future, so he looks like a safe start down the stretch.

Earl Watson (23 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Watson is quietly having a solid season for Seattle. His 6.6 dimes per game are a career-high and his 43% FG is much easier to swallow than the 38% FG that he shot last year. His February stats were excellent (12.7 points, 7.9 assists, 1 steal, and 1.4 threes per game on 50.5% FG) and Delonte West is out of town, so it looks like Watson is going to finish the season strong.

Randy Foye (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

It was a long wait, but Randy Foye is finally ready to play. Over his past 4 games, he's averaging 13.8 points, 3.5 boards, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 threes per game on 45.8% FG shooting. Foye can score points in bunches, and Minnesota will give him plenty of minutes down the stretch to see what he can do.

T.J. Ford (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Why did I diss Raymond Felton's production? In 14 games as a starter, TJ Ford averaged 14.7 points, 7.2 dimes, and 1.3 steals in just 27.5 minutes per game. He's more productive than Felton is in 10 fewer minutes! Unfortunately, he took that hard foul on December 11th and then missed a large chunk of the season. Calderon is still starting, but Ford is starting to get more comfortable out there. Toronto also has his back. They just hired former NBA player, coach, and GM John Lucas as a special consultant. Lucas has been mentoring and motivating players for a long time, and he and Ford have become close friends. This pickup is a nice boost for Ford's confidence, and if Lucas can help out Bargnani as well, the move should be applauded by all.

Delonte West (22 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Whyyaaa Hanngaaa! I talked about West plenty after he got traded, but here's a quick update. He shot just 5-20 in his first 2 games, but has settled down in the 3 games since: 13.7 points, 4.3 boards, 3.7 assists, .7 steals, 1.3 blocks, and 1 three per game. Close enough to my projections?

Level 4 - Borderline Ballers

Brevin Knight (25 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

With Sam Cassell out of the picture, Knight is the clear starter for the Clippers now. He had a nice 9 point, 12 assist, 3 steal performance vs. Denver the other night, proving that he still has some left in the tank. Despite limited playing time most of the year, he's recorded 3+ steals 12 times and 7+ assists 11 times this season, so pick him up if you need help in those cats.

Rajon Rondo (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Sam Cassell opened up more minutes for Knight, but he may limit the minutes of Rajon Rondo. The crafty vet is supposed to sign with the Celtics, a move which would likely hurt Rondo's production. He'll still be a valuable source of steals and assists, but he's no longer a reliable option.

Gilbert Arenas (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Washington has played well without him, but they could certainly use an Agent Zero injection. You know Gilbert desperately wants to play, but it's no given that will happen this season. Hang onto him if you have him tho. It wouldn't surprise me to see him return in the final weeks to give his team a boost.

Travis Diener (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Diener has stepped in for Jamaal Tinsley and played fairly well. In 15 starts, he's averaging 10.5 points, 6 dimes, and 1.4 threes per game. He doesn't get many steals, but he's still capable of big games. There's no telling when Tinsley will come back, so Diener could have value for the rest of the season.

Anthony Carter (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1)

Carter is having a solid season, but his production has declined recently. In February, he averaged just 6.8 points and 5.6 assists on 36.3% FG shooting. Due to his cold shooting, he's losing minutes to JR Smith. He's still a nice source of steals and assists, but he's not a very safe start now.

Kirk Hinrich (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Just when it looked like Hinrich might be safe, the trade went down. Now Larry Hughes is stealing a lot of his minutes and Hinrich is an extremely risky player to rely on once again. He's averaging just 20.5 minutes, 2.8 assists, and 2.5 turnovers per game over his last 4, so don't expect a stellar finish from Kirk.

Nate Robinson (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

After averaging 15.7 points, 5.1 assists, and 1.8 threes per game on 46.9% FG shooting in January, Robinson averaged just 11.4 points, 3.9 dimes, and .8 threes per game on 36.8% FG shooting in February. He's still starting and he's capable of scoring a lot of points, but he's not very consistent.

Jameer Nelson (21 games - 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2)

It's been a roller coaster season for Nelson. He's missed several games due to injury and fallen in and out of Van Gundy's doghouse. He sat out Saturday's game, but should return soon. He's capable of having solid value, but with Orlando's weak schedule down the stretch, I wouldn't want to rely on him now.

Level 3 - Respectable Reserves

Sam Cassell (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Cassell is worth hanging onto in case he steps in and plays big minutes for Boston. Re-uniting with KG is going to be huge for him, and it will be nice to see him perhaps get another title shot.

Sebastian Telfair (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

The good thing is that Telfair has stayed in the starting lineup, with Randy Foye sliding over to 2 guard. The bad thing is that Telfair is one of the worst per minute fantasy guards around. The Wolves have a nice schedule down the stretch, but I wouldn't want to rely on Telfair.

Jason Williams (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Jay-Will had a nice game on Sunday (18 points, 8 dimes, 4 threes), but his minutes have been down recently thanks to Marcus Banks. He's still worth owning, but just barely.

Antonio Daniels (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

What happened to the guy who averaged 13.3 points, 4.5 boards, and 11.8 assists in the playoffs last year when Arenas and Butler were out? Those same guys have been injured this year, but Daniels hasn't made the most of it. Part of it is that he's had to battle injuries of his own, but people who picked him up expected more from him. He's still playing big minutes and is capable of getting hot, but I wouldn't count on it.

Mike Conley (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Conley had a nice 15 point, 11 assist, 2 steal performance vs. Phoenix last week, but he's still too inconsistent to rely on.

Jarrett Jack (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Despite coming off the bench most of the year, Jack has put up nice all-around numbers. Still, he needs Blake or Roy to go down to have real value down the stretch.

Derek Fisher (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)

D-Fish had been playing fairly well, but he's really struggling to make shots now. He shot just 35.9% from the field in February and doesn't dish out enough assists to make up for it.

Level 2 - Potential Pickups

Louis Williams (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Steve Blake (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Jamaal Tinsley (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Jordan Farmar (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Luke Ridnour (23 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Kyle Lowry (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Jannero Pargo (24 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Marcus Banks (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

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Questions or comments? Send me an email: RotoEvil@82games.com