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Power Forward Rankings (For the Stretch Run)

by Eric Wong AKA Roto Evil

March 3rd, 2008 Dirk Nowitzki & Tim Duncan

It's the stretch run for fantasy owners, so now is a good time to evaluate all of the top players. I've grouped them into "levels" or tiers. Level 10 players are the "Best of the Best" and Level 1 players you don't even want to think about owning.

These rankings are based on how I see each player finishing out the season.

The # of games left is important for most people, so I've factored this in and included the weekly schedule for each player in parentheses (starting with Monday, March 3rd).

Playing time can drastically change down the stretch, so this has been taken into account as well. If a team will be fighting for a playoff spot or a top seed until the very end, that bodes well for the stats of their top players. If a team has a playoff spot locked up already (see: Detroit Pistons), they'll probably choose to rest their starters down the stretch. If a team is out of the playoff race already, they may or may not continue to give their top players big minutes. I've tried to evaluate each player on a case-by-case basis.

For those of you looking to make last-minute trades, the separate levels I've created should be helpful. I obviously don't recommend trading a Level 7 guy for a Level 6 straight up. For 2-for-1 trades, I suggest following a "50% rule." This means I would only consider trading away 1 stud for 2 lesser players if their total value is greater than 1.5 times the Level number. So, would I trade away J-Smoov (9) for Crash (6) + Randolph (5)? No way. Conversely, trading away 2 players for 1 stud is fine as long as the total value you're giving up isn't 50% greater than the player in return. Let me know if you find these rankings beneficial. Enjoy!

Level 10 - Best of the Best

Dirk Nowitzki (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 1)

Dallas only plays 22 games down the stretch, but Dirk gets by "Best of the Best" stamp of approval thanks to his new best buddy, Jason Kidd. Since Kidd arrived in Dallas, his numbers have been phenomenal: 29.7 points, 8.7 boards, 3 assists, .7 steals, 1 block, and 1.7 threes per game on 52.7% FG and 86.6% FT. Diggler is a happy man right now, and you should be too if you own him.

Level 9 - Fantasy's Finest

Shawn Marion (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

The move to Miami was a pretty fair trade-off for Marion's stats. I was sour on him because I knew his FG% was going to plummet, and sure enough, it's fallen from 52.6% in Phoenix to 47.1% in Miami, even tho he's attempting fewer threes. However, he's made up for it by increasing his points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Still, if D. Wade shuts it down, Marion could struggle from the field even more.

Josh Smith (24 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

The arrival of Mike Bibby has allowed J-Smoov to focus more on finishing and less on creating. As a result, his assists have gone down (2.3 per over his last 6 games), but his points and FG% have gone up. J-Smoov usually finishes the season strong, and this year he'll actually be rewarded with a trip to the playoffs.

Level 8 - Stud Superstars

Kevin Garnett (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

KG was sidelined for awhile with an abdominal strain, but judging by the 20 points, 16 boards, and 2 steals he put up on Sunday, he appears to be fine now. The Celtics are one of the few teams that finish with 6 games in the final 2 weeks, but they may have clinched homecourt throughout the playoffs by then. If so, they may decide to rest Garnett. You probably want to keep him in your lineup anyway, but that prevents him from being on Level 9.

Tim Duncan (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

The Spurs have won 9 in a row and are rolling right now. Duncan played like a Level 9 guy with Tony Parker out, but his stats will fall back to earth now. Of course, Duncan's earth is much more fundamentally impressive than yours or mine. San Antonio currently has the #1 seed in the West, but there's no room for slippage. Duncan may still rest a little down the stretch, but not as much as say, Rasheed Wallace.

Chris Bosh (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Over the past 2 months, Bosh was phenomenal: 25 points, 8.5 boards, 2.4 dimes, .9 steals, and 1 block per game to go along with superb 56.9% FG and 85.4% FT shooting. Unfortunately, he's currently sitting out to rest his sore knee. Hopefully he'll return soon and be fine, but you may want to consider picking up Rasho Nesterovic just in case. If it wasn't for the injury, Bosh would be in Level 9.

Level 7 - Premium Picks

David West (24 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2)

West is having a monster season, but the 7.9 boards and 46.0% FG shooting he put up in February were monthly season lows. Don't worry tho, the guy is still a beast. With 24 games down the stretch, he's one of the premium picks at this position.

Antawn Jamison (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Washington is still winning without Arenas and Butler, so I have to give Jamison some props. He's trying to carry this team on his back, and his stats reflect that. He averaged 21 points, 10 boards, and a whopping 2.5 steals per game in February, but his FG% (40.6%) suffered without Butler around to help him out. He'll finish strong since Washington is trying to hang onto their playoff spot, but he needs some help out there!

Carlos Boozer (22 games - 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Oddly enough, Boozer's points, FG attempts, and FG% have declined every month since he posted a Level 9 worthy 24.9 points, 18.1 FG attempts, and 57.7% FG back in November. His recent stats have been much more modest, and when you factor in Utah's weak schedule down the stretch, that makes him just a Level 7 pick.

Rashard Lewis (21 games - 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2)

Lewis is finally playing like a top 25 fantasy pick. In February, he set monthly season highs in assists (2.8), steals (1.4), threes (3.0), FG% (46.8%), and 3P% (44.8%), while turning the ball over just 1.5 times per game. He stated awhile back that he wanted to have a more prominent and diverse role on offense, and it looks like he's making that happen.

Level 6 - Solid Starters

Lamar Odom (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Odom has flourished playing with Pau Gasol. Over his last 15 games, he's averaging 14.1 points, 11.6 boards, 4 dimes, .7 steals, .9 blocks, and .5 threes on a stellar 61% FG shooting. He's an excellent starter for the time being, but Odom owners are probably worried about the return of Bynum.

Gerald Wallace (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

G-Wallace's season stats are quite impressive. He's a Level 8 player when healthy, but he's not healthy at the moment. He suffered a grade 3 concussion on 2/23 that left him unconscious for 13 minutes and there's no telling when he'll play again. When he does come back, you have to imagine that he'll be a little timid out there. This is a sticky situation for "Crash," because his reckless style of play is what makes him so valuable and entertaining.

Level 5 - Okay Options

Luis Scola (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Scola's value shoots thru the roof with Yao out. He'll give you solid points and rebounds and will be a huge FG% boost. Now we get to see what this guy is made of.

Chris Wilcox (23 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1)

If you're looking to trade for a big man, Chris Wilcox is a good guy to target. For the season, he's averaging just 28 minutes and 13 points per game, but Kurt Thomas was really limiting his production. Wilcox also missed a few games recently due to injury. But peep his last 2 games: he dropped 30 points (11-17 FG, 8-10 FT), 2 steals, and a block vs. Miami last Friday and 18 points (8-15 FG), 15 boards, and 3 blocks vs. Minnesota on Sunday. Wilcox is gonna be solid down the stretch.

Zach Randolph (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Zach attack has skills, but he needs to be surrounded by the right type of players. You can't just throw him out there with anybody like the Knicks apparently thought they could. If I were them, I would limit Q-Rich, Randolph and Curry's minutes down the stretch to see what a Wilson Chandler/ Renaldo Balkman/ David Lee frontcourt could do. But Isaiah is an idiot, so expect Zach to keep droppin double-doubles.

David Lee (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Look at what Lee did in February: 31.6 minutes, 10.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, .7 steals, .3 blocks, 66.7% FG, 91.7% FT. Why is he not playing 36 mpg again?

Hakim Warrick (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Warrick has replaced Gasol valiantly in Memphis. In 10 starts this season, he's averaging 17 points, 9 boards, .8 steals, and .7 blocks per game on 50.7% FG shooting. He's the most talented big man the Grizzlies have, so he'll continue to log heavy minutes.

Kenyon Martin (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1)

Despite averaging just 30 mpg this season, K-Mart is a member of the coveted 1+ steal and 1+ block club. The 16 guys in that club are fantasy gold, plus Martin's minutes are no longer being restricted (35.5 mpg in February), so his overall production is on the rise.

Level 4 - Borderline Ballers

Udonis Haslem (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Haslem missed most of February with a high ankle sprain, but he had been a top 100 fantasy player before that. He pulls down 9 boards per game and his shooting %'s (47.3% FG, 79.8% FT) are rock solid. Dorell Wright just had knee surgery and is going to miss the rest of the season, so Miami only has a few proven guys still standing. Expect more boring but solid numbers down the stretch from Haslem.

Boris Diaw (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

It's been an up and down season for Diaw and his owners, but he's played very well since Shaq joined the team. Over his last 6 games, he's averaging 27.8 minutes, 9.7 points, 5.3 boards, 3.3 dimes, and .7 steals per game on a stellar 59.1% FG shooting. Don't underestimate the value of his 4 assists per game, which is tops among all power forwards.

Andray Blatche (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

I've talked about Blatche a lot in the past. He's young, long, athletic, and skilled, and he could be a future fantasy star. In 14 starts this season, he's averaged 31.4 minutes, 11.9 points, 8.1 boards, 1.2 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game on 47.8% FG shooting. Those are very impressive numbers for a 21 year old who still has a lot to learn. Unfortunately, Blatche was recently moved to the bench in favor of the veteran Songaila. He'll still get plenty of minutes to contribute with Caron Butler out, but his value isn't even close to what it will be a few years from now.

Al Thornton (25 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

The rookie has proven to be a very capable scorer. He averaged 17.1 points on 47.2% shooting in February, but he needs to get more steals and blocks to have serious value. The Clippers have a great schedule down the stretch and no reason to keep this kid on the bench, but if Elton Brand returns, that could be a major buzzkill.

Elton Brand (25 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Speaking of that rock solid big man out of Duke, it looks like Brand will return this month after all. They'll probably slowly ease him back, but if Brand still looks like the Brand that we know and love, he could provide serious help to your team over the final 3-4 weeks.

Drew Gooden (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Gooden has played well for Chicago. In 5 games, he's averaging 28.6 minutes, 11 points, 9.4 boards, .6 steals, and .6 blocks. He started on Sunday and got a double-double, and that may have earned him a starting spot for the rest of the season. Still, Chicago has a lot of young talent but limited minutes to divvy up down the stretch.

Thaddeus Young (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Thaddeus Young quietly worked his way into Philly's rotation, and he's been a very effective player for them. He averaged 29.2 minutes, 10.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game on 56% FG shooting in February, and his season FG% is rock solid at 52.8%. Thaddeus is still only 19, but he's established himself as an excellent source of steals: 18 in his last 9 games.

Level 3 - Respectable Reserves

Antonio McDyess (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)

McDyess has had a solid season. His 8.9 rebounds per game ranks 22nd in the league and he's shooting 50% from the field for the 4th year in a row. He also chips in steals and blocks, but he's not very consistent and Detroit may decrease his minutes to get him ready for the playoffs. Guys like Maxiell and Amir have been stealing minutes from him all season long, and now Walter Herrmann may get in on the act as well.

Tim Thomas (25 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Tim Thomas made 37 threes in 14 games in November, but has made just 31 threes in 34 games since. I don't get it either. He's still playing 30+ mpg, but that should decline down the stretch as Thornton gets more minutes and Brand possibly comes back. He's also currently out with a groin injury, so I wouldn't expect much from him from here on out.

Tyrus Thomas (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

If Tyrus Thomas is shooting 40.9% from the field (which he is), then he's obviously trying to do too much. Perhaps that's why he just lost his starting job to Drew Gooden and is still miles away from maximizing his potential. Tyrus is still capable of putting up monster stat lines when he gets minutes, but I wouldn't want to rely on him at this point.

Travis Outlaw (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Outlaw has started just 2 games all season long, but he's hit a bunch of clutch shots and has proven to be one of the top backup forwards in the league. His fantasy value hasn't been quite as nice as I expected because his steals and blocks are way down, but he still has decent value off the bench.

Paul Millsap (22 games - 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Millsap also started just 2 games this season, but he dropped 40 points on 60.7% FG shooting, to go with 22 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks in those 2 contests. Not bad. Boozer and Okur may rest a little more in April, so Millsap could help you out then.

Joe Smith (22 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Joe Smith changed teams for the 9th time in his career recently. With Big Z sidelined for at least 2 weeks, Smith is going to get solid minutes off the bench for Cleveland. He won't get many boards or blocks, but he'll score some points for you without hurting your %'s.

Charlie Villanueva (22 games - 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Charlie V. finally put up some decent stats in February: 27.1 minutes, 12.8 points, 7.5 boards, and .5 blocks per game on 43.4% FG and 90.3% FT shooting. He's still starting for the time being, but the Bucks will want to give Yi a lot of minutes down the stretch, so Villanueva's value remains limited.

Vladimir Radmanovic (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Radman was playing very well before he strained his calf. He averaged 1.3 threes and 1.3 steals per game in February, but with Luke Walton healthy and Bynum possibly coming back, Vlad's minutes could be limited down the stretch.

Carl Landry (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Landry is going to get a lot of minutes with Yao out. Over his last 5 games, he's averaged 10.4 points and 6.4 boards on 20-28 FG shooting (71.4%!). He's undersized and doesn't block many shots, but he's appears to be very comfortable around the basket.

Mikki Moore (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Despite playing more minutes than last season, Moore's points, steals, and blocks are down this year. He puts up decent lines every now and then, but his upside is limited and he's not very consistent.

Level 2 - Potential Pickups

For Points & FG%:

Craig Smith (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2)
Leon Powe (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)
Darius Songaila (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

For Boards:

Jared Dudley (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Reggie Evans (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)
Yi Jianlian (22 games - 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2)

For Blocks:

Brandan Wright (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Amir Johnson (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)
Jason Maxiell (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)

For Threes:

Matt Barnes (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Austin Croshere (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Walter Herrmann (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)

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Questions or comments? Send me an email: RotoEvil@82games.com