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If you are a fantasy sports novice, it is important to remember that each category is weighted equally in Rotisserie scoring leagues. Leading your league in points scored is the same as leading your league in FT% or steals or any other category. Therefore, we need to figure out how much a player helps (or hurts) your fantasy team in each of the 8 categories. To do this, I have assigned a value (also referred to as "rating" or "score") ranging from 0-10 for each category.

NBA.com also uses a 0-10 rating system that they call the Fantasy Sports Performance Index (FSPI), which they claim is: "a system utilized by NBA.com to evaluate player performance in rotisserie style leagues." However, I believe there are several serious flaws with the FSPI system.

As a result, I've created my own Roto Evil Rating (RER) system. My intention for the RER system is to accurately rank players for rotisserie NBA fantasy drafts. Simply put, it's designed to win fantasy basketball leagues. You can use it as a pre-draft guide to get ready for the upcoming season, a cheat sheet to reference during the draft, and as a tool to monitor your team's strengths and weaknesses. I have honed this system over the years and feel very confident that it will help you draft a top-notch fantasy team capable of winning your league title.

How does the Roto Evil Rating (RER) system work?



STAT PROJECTIONS:

In order to project a player's value for the upcoming season, we must first project what his key statistics will look like. Starting with last season's stats as a baseline, I then examine previous year's stats, looking for trends and anomalies.

TREND: In the 1999-2000 season, Tracy McGrady blocked a career-high 1.9 shots per game. Since then, his blocks have gone down to 1.5 to 1.0 to .8 to .6 to .7 to .9 to .5 per game. I would consider this a definite downward trend.

ANOMALY: His first 5 years in the league, Tony Parker shot just 69.9% from the free throw line (981-1403). Last season, he made 78.3% of his freebies. Sudden spikes or drops in FT% are much harder to decipher. Was it simply Eva Longoria's magic touch?

I also like to analyze split stats and game logs from the season prior. For players with limited NBA experience, this is very helpful. For an example, let's examine one of last year's breakout players, Kevin Martin. Most people knew that Kev-Mart was going to get more playing time in '06-07, but few knew what he was going to do with that. His '05-06 season averages were a very modest 26.5 minutes and 10.8 points per game.

The astute fantasy owner looked back to the middle of the '05-06 season when Bonzi Wells went down and Kev-Mart got his chance to shine. I was paying attention to him because I remembered hearing about his skilled offensive repertoire back in 2004 on what is now DraftExpress.com. Anyway, in the month of February he laid down this solid stat line:

Kevin Martin (Feb. 2006)
36.8 minutes, 16.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.7 threes
53.1% FG, 43.2% 3P, and 89.8% FT on 4.5 FTA/ game in 11 games played

Kev-Mart proved that month that he was capable of putting up big offensive numbers and if you looked at those stats and then saw his Reggie Miller-esque style, there's NO WAY you would have let him fall past the end of the 8th round (where I picked him) last year.

In addition to stat analysis, you need to consider what variables are different this season for each player. Is he on a new team? Does he have new teammates or a new coaching staff? What has he been doing over the summer? Did he sign a new contract? Is he still rehabbing an injury? Did he fall in love with a hot television actress?

CATEGORY VALUES:

My category values are based directly upon my stat projections for the upcoming season. By assigning a value to each category, you can quickly see what a player's strengths and weaknesses are when it comes to Roto fantasy hoops.

The lowest rating a player can receive in a category is a 0. However, very few players will receive a score below 4.0 in any of the categories. To do that, they would have to have a major negative effect on your fantasy team. Thus, the only 0 rating is Shaq's FT%. Dwight Howard's FT% rating is 1.5. The worst FG% culprits (like Rafer Alston) will receive a rating around 3.0. A player can make 0 threes and block 0 shots per game, but he'll still receive a 4.0 rating for those categories. Why is that?

Well, there are plenty of big men in the NBA who don't make any threes, but only ONE guy has averaged over 10 free throw attempts per game while shooting 52.5% from the line for his career. If Shaq doesn't make any threes, he's definitely not helping you in that category, but he's not hurting you that much either. However, all of his missed free throws will hurt your fantasy team A LOT, which explains the difference between a 0 rating and a 4 rating.

The highest rating a player can receive per category is a 10. However, very few players will receive a score above 8.0 in any of the categories. Some rating systems (NBA.com's FSPI for example) give the league leader in each category a perfect 10 rating. This is flawed because some league leaders are more dominant than others, so they should not be considered equal.

For example, Steve Nash's 11.6 assists were much more impressive than Baron Davis' league-leading 2.1 steals per game last season. Not only did Nash dish out 25% more assists than his nearest competitor (11.63 to 9.31), but he also recorded the highest average since John Stockton dished out 12.3 in 1994! On the other hand, if you look at the top steals per game averages from the past 20 years, Baron Davis' 2.14 from last season doesn't even crack the top 100! This explains why Nash's assist rating is 9.25 whereas Baron's steal rating is just 7.75.

I have examined the league leaders in every Roto category over the past 20 seasons, and have reserved perfect scores only for the best of the best. As a result, the majority of my category values are between 4.0-8.0, with lower scores being extreme negatives and higher scores being extreme positives.


INJURY AND MISC. VALUES:

While the category values tell you how much projected value each player has per category PER GAME, it doesn't consider how many games each player is going to play. I know that some sites make projections for games played, but I find this method rather silly. It's simply too difficult to predict such a statistic.

So I have added an Injury Value for each player that ranges from 0-5. Over the past 7 years, Shawn Marion has played in 79+ games every season, playing in 97.9% of a possible 574 games, so he gets a perfect 5. On the other hand, Marcus Camby has never played more than 72 games in a season and has played in just 70.8% of a possible 870 games, so he gets just a .5 injury rating.

Negative injury ratings are reserved for players who we know are going to miss the start of the season (D. Wade, Brand, etc.). A player's injury history is something that needs to be factored in on draft day, which is what my injury value attempts to do for you.




I have also added a Misc. Value for each player that ranges from 0-5.
The miscellaneous category is a grab-bag of many possible factors. First and foremost, you have to think like a legendary coach. You're Hubie Brown: Does this player have tremendous upside potential?

Players with a lot of upside are very intriguing, but keep in mind that potential only gets you so far in life. Some players just don't have the drive to capitalize on their upside. Now you're the Stro Show: on a scale of 0-5, how much do you actually care about what your coach is saying? If a player doesn't have the DESIRE, then you can throw that upside out the window.

These types of intangibles can't be overlooked when selecting your fantasy team. Is he a leader? A winner? Is he happy with his current team and contract situation? Are new teammates going to make things easier for him? Do you enjoy watching him play and rooting for him or is he someone that you love to hate? Ultimately, you need to ask yourself if he's someone that you want to have on your fantasy team. That's what it comes down to. So feel free to adjust my Misc. values for players that you like and dislike and see how that affects their Roto Evil Rating.

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Questions or comments? Send me an email: RotoEvil@82games.com

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