82games DRAFT League - Part 2 - Category Analysis
A Tribe Called Evil
Represent-represent-sent...
G- C. Billups
G- K. Martin
G- B. Gordon
G- D. Harris
F- A. Kirilenko
F- J. Childress
F- D. Lee
F- U. Haslem
C- D. Howard
C- A. Bargnani
U- L. Walton
U- J. Salmons
There are 12 teams in this league and 8 equally important Roto categories. In a theoretically balanced league, each team would have 1 top 12 player, 2 top 24 players, 3 top 36 players, etc. in each category. So if you have more than 1 top 12 player, more than 2 top 24 players, more than 3 top 36 players, etc., chances are you are going to be above average for that category.
For example, if you have 3 top 12 players and 6 top 36 players in blocks, that leaves only 30 other top shotblockers left to divy up among the 11 other teams, meaning there's a good chance that you are going to win blocks. So I like to gauge my categories by looking at the top players in each cat from last year and then projecting which of my players will be on that list this year. This usually provides a good idea of how strong your team is in each category. Onto the analysis...
POINTS
3 in the top 24
*Kevin Martin was 24th in scoring last year and he'll get even more shot attempts this year with Bibby out for half the season. He has a decent shot at scoring 25 ppg and cracking the top 12.
*Ben Gordon's 21.4 ppg was good for 19th last year and that might go up a little bit in '07-08.
*Dwight Howard was just 44th in scoring last season, but he should easily crack the top 20 this year.
4 in the top 48
*Chauncey Billups was 51st in scoring with 17.0 ppg, but he averaged 18.5 the year before so he should be able to crack the top 48.
5 in the top 60
*Andrea Bargnani will need to average about 16.4 ppg to crack the top 60, but it's not out of his reach (AB dropped 20 in the season opener). After the All-Star break, he scored 14.9 ppg in under 30 minutes and in the preseason he averaged 14.4 ppg in just 22.6 minutes per game.
ANALYSIS
The rest of my roster will be in the 10-15 ppg range, meaning that my team is pretty weak in points. I'm hoping that my big 3 carries me and that Bargnani steps up big time. Occasional big games from Salmons and Childress will also be key. I'll be happy if I can finish in the upper half.
Predicted finish: 7th - 8th place
REBOUNDS
1 in the top 12
*D. Howard was 3rd in boards last year, just behind Chandler and Garnett. Rashard Lewis isn't as good a rebounder as Battie or Darko, so Howard will be asked to swipe even more boards this year.
3 in the top 24
*David Lee was a monster on the glass last year, pulling down 10.4 boards in less than 30 minutes per game. That placed him 11th in the NBA, but he'll probably fall out of the top 12 with Zach Randolph now on board.
*Udonis Haslem was 26th in rebounds last year with 8.3 per game. I'm projecting that number to be in the 9-10 range this year, meaning he'll easily crack the top 24.
4 in the top 48
*Andrei Kirilenko pulled down just 4.7 rpg in '06-07, but nabbed 8.0 rpg in '05-06 and 8.1 rpg in '03-04. If he can just average 6.8 boards this year, he'll crack the top 48 (AK has 15 boards thru 2 games).
6 in the top 60
*Josh Childress was 60th in rebounds last year with 6.2 per game. It will be hard for him to match that with Al Horford in town, but J-Chill will definitely help me out on the glass.
*Bargnani is not known for his rebounding prowess, but he'll be asked to hit the glass hard as the new starting center for Toronto. His preseason averages of 5.6 boards in 22.6 minutes shows that he's capable of pulling down 6+ boards and cracking the top 60 this season.
ANALYSIS
I'm very confident in my big 3 of Howard, Haslem, and Lee. Childress, Bargnani, Kirilenko, and Walton will all pitch in, and Martin and Salmons will get their share of boards as well.
Predicted finish: 4th - 5th place
ASSISTS
1 in the top 12
*Billups was 10th in assists last year with 7.2 per game. He dished out 8.6 the year before, so it would be nice if he could average somewhere in between this season (Billups had 11 dimes in the opener).
2 in the top 36
*Devin Harris' 3.7 apg didn't even crack the top 60 last year, but he's poised for a breakout season in '07-08. He'll make the top 36 if he can average just 4.8 dimes this year.
6 in the top 60
*Luke Walton was 47th in assists last year with 4.3 per game. I'm projecting that number to fall a bit this year, but he'll still make the top 60.
*Gordon's 3.6 dimes per game placed him 67th last year, but remember that he was playing less than 30 mpg to start the season. With extra minutes this year, he should easily crack the top 60.
*John Salmons averaged 3.2 dimes last season, but that number rose to 3.7 in December when he got extended minutes. Salmons is going to have the ball in his hands quite often this year, so he should be able to average 4+ dimes and crack the top 60 (he had 9 in the season opener!).
*AK47 averaged just 2.9 apg last year, but 4.3 in '05-06. He just needs to dish out 3.8 apg to crack the top 60 this season (AK has 12 dimes thru 2 games).
ANALYSIS
Assists are probably my 2nd weakest category, so if Devin Harris can step up big time that would be sweet. I like what Salmons can do for me, but I shouldn't have passed on Tinsley to get him. I'll be lucky if I can crack the top 5 in dimes.
Predicted finish: 6th - 7th place
STEALS
3 in the top 36
*AK47 averaged a career-low 1.06 steals last season. He had 1.45 thefts or more in each of the 4 seasons prior, so there's a good chance that he'll return to the top 30 in '07-08.
*Harris was 40th in steals last year with 1.20. I'm expecting that number to climb to 1.3 or 1.4 this season, and he may even crack the top 24.
*Kev-Mart was 38th in steals last year with 1.23. I'm projecting a slight increase as he sneaks into the top 36.
4 in the top 48
*Billups actually tied Harris for 40th place in steals last year. However, the 1.20 steals were his highest mark in 8 years so I'm expecting that number to decline a bit.
6 in the top 60
*J-Chill just barely missed out on the top 60 with 1.05 steals per game. He averaged 1.16 the year before so he should have no problem getting back into the top 60.
*Salmons averaged .92 steals per game in just 27.1 minutes last season. I'm projecting him to play 32+ minutes this year, so he should be able to crack the top 60.
Note
*While none of them finished in the top 70, Walton, Gordon, D. Howard, and D. Lee all had .8 steals or more last season.
ANALYSIS
I don't have a guy that I can count on for 2-3 steals every game, so everyone on A Tribe Called Evil will have to pitch in. As a result, I won't finish in the top 3, but I should be able to sneak into the upper half of the steals standings.
Predicted finish: 5th - 6th place
BLOCKS
2 in the top 12
*Even in a down year, AK was able to place 9th in blocks with 2.06 per game. He swatted 3.19 and 3.32 in the 2 seasons prior, so I'm expecting him to bounce back with at least 2.60 in '07-08 (AK has 7 blocks thru 2 games).
*Howard's 1.90 blocks per game placed him 13th last season, but he's capable of much more. I'm projecting a modest increase to 2.20 this season, but he even has 3 bpg potential. The Man-Beast had 7 swats in game 1!
3 in the top 48
*Bargnani was 54th in blocks per game in his rookie season, so he'll easily crack the top 48 this year.
ANALYSIS
AK and D-Howard are going to carry my team in blocks (they combined for 12 rejections in game 1, which was just absurd). Bargnani and Childress (.65 bpg last year) will also chip in, but my place in the standings will rely solely on the health of AK47. If he plays in 75+ games, I could finish in the top 2, and if he plays in 65-74 games, I should be able to finish in the top 4. But if AK plays in 50 games or less, my team is going to struggle to finish in the top 6.
Predicted finish: 3rd - 4th place
THREES
3 in the top 24
*Bargnani was 44th in threes per game (1.5) as a rookie, but should easily crack the top 20 this season. He nailed 2.2 per game after the All-Star break.
*Gordon made 1.9 threes per game last year, placing him 22nd in the league. I'm expecting BG to bump it up to 2.0 threes and to crack the top 20 this season.
*Kev-Mart made 1.6 threes per game last year (37th) on just 4.2 attempts per game. With more attempts, he should be able to bust 1.8 per game in '07-08.
4 in the top 48
*Billups made just 1.6 threes per game last year (39th), but nailed 2.3 and 2.1 in the 2 seasons prior. Chauncey should easily crack the top 36 in '07-08.
ANALYSIS
I only have 4 guys projected in the top 60, but those 4 should carry me pretty far. I also have Walton, Salmons, and Childress who are decent three-point shooters, and Devin Harris, who is starting to gain some confidence in his outside shot. I'm hoping to finish in the top 5.
Predicted finish: 5th - 6th place
FG%
2 in the top 12
*Dwight Howard is just a monster in the paint, as evidenced by his 60.3% FG shooting last year. Mikki Moore edged him for the #1 spot among qualifiers, but that's not going to happen again. With D-Ho taking and making more shots this season, it's going to help out my FG% that much more.
*D. Lee shot exactly 60% from the field last year, but didn't qualify for the league leaders because he missed 24 games. A full season from Lee will be very nice.
4 in the top 24
*Childress shot 50.4% from the field last year, but an amazing 55.2% the year before. Atlanta is loaded with offensive weapons, so J-Chill will get a lot of open looks this season and should shoot well over 50% for the 3rd year in a row.
*Haslem finished 29th in FG% last season at 49.2%, but shot 50.8% and 54.0% in the 2 seasons prior. I'm projecting a return to form in '07-08 as he returns to the top 24.
5 in the top 36
*Harris made 49.2% of his shots last year, but came up just short of qualifying for the league leaders. The only guards with a higher FG% were Nash and Parker.
8 in the top 60
*AK47 shot 47.1% from the field last year and should put up a similar FG% this season.
*Walton shot 47.4% last year, but will have a hard time matching that this season. He should still make the top 60 though.
*Salmons' FG% was just 45.6% last year, but he shot the ball much better when he got more minutes. He's going to play a key role in the Kings offense this year, so I'm projecting him to shoot over 46% and crack the top 60 (he shot 10-19 in the opener).
*Last season, Kev-Mart shot an excellent 49.4% from the field before the All-Star break but just 43.8% after. He finished the season 42nd in FG%, but I don't think he'll crack the top 60 this year. Opposing defenses know all about him now.
Note
*Bargnani shot just 42.7% last year, but a lot of that was just rookie jitters (he shot 45.6% after the All-Star break). I'm projecting him to shoot around 45% for '07-08, which is actually pretty solid for a guy who attempts so many threes.
Liability
*Billups shot just 42.7% last year and has shot over 43% just once in his career. Still, he rarely attempts 20+ field goals in a game, so his poor shooting won't hurt that much.
ANALYSIS
As long as Dwight Howard stays healthy, my team is going to finish in the top 3 in FG%. I made it a point to draft high % shooters, so I think I'll do very well in this category. Kamla is the favorite here since he drafted some FG% studs (and FT% duds), but a 2nd place finish for Tribe is not out of question.
Predicted finish: 2nd - 3rd place
FT%
1 in the top 12
*Billups was 7th in the league in FT% with a stellar 88.3%. The veteran gets to the line a lot, which helps make him such a good fantasy player.
3 in the top 24
*Ben Gordon shot 86.4% from the line last year, good for 13th in the league. He attempted 5.4 free throws per game last year, but that number should go up to 6-7 this season, making him even more valuable.
*Kev-Mart was 25th in FT% last year at 84.4%. One thing that worries me tho is that Martin is going to have a huge load on his shoulders this season. Hopefully he doesn't get injured but I could see him huffin' and puffin' a lot at the line and maybe missing more free throws as a result.
4 in the top 36
*Harris shot 82.4% last year, which was good for 42nd place. However, there was one aberration: last February he was off his game and shot just 60.7%. If he doesn't have one of those bad months this season, he'll crack the top 36.
5 in the top 48
*Bargnani shot an impressive 82.4% from the line as a rookie, which would have placed him in the top 45. As a center, he's one of the top free throw shooters out there.
7 in the top 60
*After shooting just 57.7% his rookie year, D. Lee improved to an astounding 81.5% last season, good for 51st in the league. To be honest, I'll be happy if he can just shoot over 78%.
*Childress shot 79.5% last year and just missed out on the top 60. In '04-05 he shot 82.3%, so he could easily jump back into the top 60.
Note
*Haslem shot just 68% last year, but I'm hoping that's an aberration because he shot a sweet 78.9% and 79.1% in the 2 seasons prior. If Haslem can return to form and Lee keeps up his stellar shooting, I'll be getting a combined 20 rebounds from my 78%+ FT shooting power forwards.
Liability
*Dwight Howard shot a career-low 58.6% from the line last year and was much worse in the 2nd half (52.1%). However, in '04-05 he shot an acceptable 67.1% and he looked decent from the stripe over the summer. It's reasonable to think he'll shoot 65% this season and one can be hopeful that he'll be over 70%. Obviously, whether he shoots 60%, 65%, 70%, or 75% will make a big difference because he's going to live at the line about 10 times a game this season. He was 8-10 in game 1, so he's off to a great start!
ANALYSIS
After picking Howard in round 1, I decided to focus on guys who could knock down their free throws. Looking back, I think I placed too much emphasis on this, because I definitely passed up a few players who were poor FT shooters but may have been more valuable. Still, I think I did a good job of ensuring that my team will finish in the top 5 of the FT% standings. If Dwight can hit 70% or more of his freebies, I could even see myself finishing in the top 3.
Predicted finish: 3rd - 4th place
A Tribe Called Evil - Final Standings Prediction
Predicted Roto Points = 61 - 69 pts
Predicted Finish = 3rd place - 4th place
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