'Experts' NBA Fantasy DRAFT League, year II

Last season saw the first running of the 82games 'draft only' league and bold predictions aside, the winner wound up being the Talented Mr. Roto, Matthew Berry, edging out NBA TV's Rick Kamla and Yahoo! Sports fantasy guru Brandon Funston in a race that went down to the last day and was decided by a mere point in the final standings (67 - Berry, 66 - Kamla, 65 - Funston).

Most fantasy leagues are set up to make the participants sweat through the season on a daily basis -- start/bench decision, scanning the free agents for worthy pickups, wondering when to give up and drop the draft day disappointment, evaluating trades, and so on. Not at 82games! We're too busy for that, and have elected to go with the most PURE league you could imagine:

• Standard 8-cat Roto league
• Draft 10 players
• All 10 players start the entire season
• no pickups/drops/trades or roster changes of any kind

1. Jonathan Givony - DraftExpress
2. Eric Weiss - BBIQ
3. Matthew Berry - ESPN
4. Chris Ballard - Sports Illustrated
5. Eric Wong - 82games fantasy expert
6. Tommy Beer - Hoopsworld
7. Kevin Pelton - APBR/Sonics/BasketballProspectus
8. Roland Beech - 82games founder
9. Chris Liss - Rotowire
10. John Hollinger - ESPN

Duly we gathered the day before the season for a ten round draft that lasted about an hour. The one additional rule of note was that you had to have on your roster one of each position (a PG, SG, SF, PF, C) and then the remaining five players could be of any position.

Given the particulars of the setup (no replacements, all players drafted start all year) there was some aversion perhaps to 'injury risk' types compared to the usual fantasy league 'average draft placement' type ratings. Gilbert Arenas, among others, went undrafted! [Side story: Givony contemplated taking Arenas "he says he's back in late November" to which Hollinger responded "Arenas in late November, ha ha ha ha. Better chance of seeing Sasquatch!"]

Being the numbers oriented guy I am, and having obviously learned no lesson from last time round when I predicted I would win (it wasn't all bad, I did have Berry forecast for third), I've gone ahead and projected out the standings for the various rosters using an average of assorted player projections. In a format like this the 'games played' projection is key and consequently makes the standings estimate quite dicey.

This last part is huge -- a guy may be a star but if he only plays 50 games, that's 32 games in this league where he's giving you zeroes across the board...and he may not be as valuable as a journeyman off the bench playing 20 minutes a game, but all 82 games! That's the key to this league, guys who produce, and guys who produce over the full schedule!

So throwing the projections into the computer, and letting it whirl to add up the expected stats (including the zeroes for predicted games missed), reveals the following results:

Predicted Standings

82games.com DRAFT SUPERSTARS League II										Category Points
Pk	Team Owner	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	3's	FG%	FT%	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	3's	FG%	FT%	Total
3	Matthew Berry - ESPN	14432	5195	3002	835	714	520	0.489	0.732	10	8	9	7	9	2	9	1	55
8	Roland Beech - 82games	12290	5019	3052	837	639	931	0.469	0.772	3	7	10	8	7	9	6	4	54
4	Chris Ballard - SI	14110	5233	2969	790	532	800	0.467	0.783	9	10	7	4	6	7	4	6	53
1	Jon. Givony - DraftExpress	13980	4597	2857	884	520	914	0.468	0.779	8	2	5	10	5	8	5	5	48
5	Eric Wong - 82games	13074	4778	2478	839	509	721	0.490	0.800	6	5	2	9	3	5	10	7	47
6	Tommy Beer - Hoopsworld	12859	5217	2650	827	493	551	0.474	0.816	5	9	3	6	2	3	7	10	45
7	Kevin Pelton - APBR/Sonics	12714	4816	2997	780	746	611	0.475	0.767	4	6	8	2	10	4	8	2	44
9	Chris Liss - Rotowire	12206	4653	2889	786	657	757	0.460	0.809	2	3	6	3	8	6	3	9	40
10	John Hollinger - ESPN	13377	3864	2680	805	398	988	0.457	0.806	7	1	4	5	1	10	1	8	37
2	Eric Weiss - BBIQ	10744	4663	2227	712	513	332	0.458	0.769	1	4	1	1	4	1	2	3	17

Berry quickly punted on the FT% category by taking Dwight Howard, Okafor and LeBron, but the projections at least say he may survive and wind up on top. Of course significant injuries are bound to strike some teams, and while that can help boost you up in 'accumulator' categories, you're not going to be gaining FT points through other teams' misfortunes. In other words, he's picked to win, but very vulnerable!

And gosh if he does falter, look who is right there to move on up! Clearly the fact that the projections I used for calculating the standings are the same as those I used to draft means my team is likely to be viewed favorably. A different set of projections could be another story.

It should be mentioned that this year drafting in the first few spots would appear to be a nice advantage, whereas Liss and Hollinger who were stuck at the bottom might inordinately suffer through no fault of their own.

Finally I must add that Eric Weiss' very unconventional picks came about through a disciplined plan: "I am just re-instituting an old experimental draft strategy - no player not on a rookie deal" and if he ends up having the last laugh we may have to throw a lot of the standard fantasy ideas out the window!

Ah, but of course the standings are super tight based on the projections, and this league could dissolve into a last man standing affair when injuries and Artest-quality suspensions start taking their toll. Expecting the actual results to be anything close to the above is foolish.

Surprisingly though if I ignore the games played projections and just pencil in every player for the full 82 games, the prediction looks quite similar:

55 - Beech
54 - Berry
53 - Givony
50 - Beer

We'll keep tabs on how the league unfolds through the year (you can too: try this link http://games.espn.go.com/fba/leagueoffice?leagueId=74975) and if you're thinking you could take down this field, work on your qualifications and maybe we'll open it up to some more folks for 2009-10.

For the pick-by-pick drama, feast your eyes on the following:

ROUND 1			ROUND 2
1	Chris Paul, Nor	Team Givony	11	Kevin Garnett, Bos	PERfect Drafter
2	Brandon Roy, Por	Team Weiss	12	Danny Granger, Ind	Team Liss
3	LeBron James, Cle	Team Berry	13	Baron Davis, LAC	Team Beech
4	Kobe Bryant, LAL	Team Ballard	14	Josh Smith, Atl	Team Pelton
5	Amar'e Stoudemire, Pho	Team Wong	15	Shawn Marion, Mia	Team Beer
6	Dirk Nowitzki, Dal	Team Beer	16	Caron Butler, Was	Team Wong
7	Deron Williams, Uta	Team Pelton	17	Tim Duncan, SA	Team Ballard
8	Steve Nash, Pho	Team Beech	18	Dwight Howard, Orl	Team Berry
9	Elton Brand, Phi	Team Liss	19	Andrew Bynum, LAL	Team Weiss
10	Dwyane Wade, Mia	PERfect Drafter	20	Carlos Boozer, Uta	Team Givony
ROUND 3			ROUND 4
21	Joe Johnson, Atl	Team Givony	31	Kevin Martin, Sac	PERfect Drafter
22	Kevin Durant, OKC	Team Weiss	32	Jose Calderon, Tor	Team Liss
23	Allen Iverson, Den	Team Berry	33	Marcus Camby, LAC	Team Beech
24	Al Jefferson, Min	Team Ballard	34	Rudy Gay, Mem	Team Pelton
25	Chris Bosh, Tor	Team Wong	35	David West, Nor	Team Beer
26	Andre Iguodala, Phi	Team Beer	36	Rashard Lewis, Orl	Team Wong
27	Carmelo Anthony, Den	Team Pelton	37	Paul Pierce, Bos	Team Ballard
28	Vince Carter, NJ	Team Beech	38	Pau Gasol, LAL	Team Berry
29	Jason Kidd, Dal	Team Liss	39	Michael Beasley, Mia	Team Weiss
30	Chauncey Billups, Det	PERfect Drafter	40	Jason Richardson, Cha	Team Givony
ROUND 5			ROUND 6
41	Greg Oden, Por	Team Givony	51	Corey Maggette, GS	PERfect Drafter
42	Rajon Rondo, Bos	Team Weiss	52	Stephen Jackson, GS	Team Liss
43	Antawn Jamison, Was	Team Berry	53	Mike Dunleavy*, Ind	Team Beech
44	Hedo Turkoglu, Orl	Team Ballard	54	T.J. Ford, Ind	Team Pelton
45	Devin Harris, NJ	Team Wong	55	Mo Williams, Cle	Team Beer
46	Yao Ming, Hou	Team Beer	56	Andre Miller, Phi	Team Wong
47	Chris Kaman, LAC	Team Pelton	57	Lamar Odom, LAL	Team Ballard
48	Ron Artest, Hou	Team Beech	58	Tony Parker, SA	Team Berry
49	LaMarcus Aldridge, Por	Team Liss	59	Al Horford, Atl	Team Weiss
50	Rasheed Wallace, Det	PERfect Drafter	60	Gerald Wallace, Cha	Team Givony
ROUND 7			ROUND 8
61	Jamal Crawford, NY	Team Givony	71	Tracy McGrady, Hou	PERfect Drafter
62	Derrick Rose, Chi	Team Weiss	72	Josh Howard, Dal	Team Liss
63	Michael Redd, Mil	Team Berry	73	Andris Biedrins, GS	Team Beech
64	Mike Bibby, Atl	Team Ballard	74	Andrew Bogut, Mil	Team Pelton
65	Mehmet Okur, Uta	Team Wong	75	Zach Randolph, NY	Team Beer
66	David Lee, NY	Team Beer	76	Tyson Chandler, Nor	Team Wong
67	Manu Ginobili*, SA	Team Pelton	77	Brad Miller, Sac	Team Ballard
68	Mike Miller, Min	Team Beech	78	Emeka Okafor, Cha	Team Berry
69	John Salmons, Sac	Team Liss	79	Charlie Villanueva, Mil	Team Weiss
70	Ray Allen, Bos	PERfect Drafter	80	Luol Deng, Chi	Team Givony
ROUND 9			ROUND 10
81	Jermaine O'Neal, Tor	Team Givony	91	J.R. Smith, Den	PERfect Drafter
82	Jeff Green, OKC	Team Weiss	92	Samuel Dalembert, Phi	Team Liss
83	Andrei Kirilenko, Uta	Team Berry	93	Al Harrington, GS	Team Beech
84	Richard Jefferson, Mil	Team Ballard	94	Kevin Love, Min	Team Pelton
85	O.J. Mayo, Mem	Team Wong	95	Randy Foye, Min	Team Beer
86	Raymond Felton, Cha	Team Beer	96	Jason Terry, Dal	Team Wong
87	Leandro Barbosa, Pho	Team Pelton	97	Ricky Davis, LAC	Team Ballard
88	Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cle	Team Beech	98	Ramon Sessions, Mil	Team Berry
89	Ben Gordon, Chi	Team Liss	99	Rodney Stuckey, Det	Team Weiss
90	Troy Murphy, Ind	PERfect Drafter	100	Peja Stojakovic, Nor	Team Givony