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Roland NBA Playoffs Physicality Report

Series NYK @ BOS | NYK 2, BOS 1

Tracking over forty types of contact, aggression, and resilience
-- every second of the game. (including after the whistle!)


New stat: Player vs Player PHYSICALITY MATCHUP WINNERS!

Our definition of "physicality" is basically one player in physical contact in some way (we have over 40+ different categories as of now) with an opposing player, which sets up well for "player vs player" physicality battle analysis!

For the series as a whole through three games, here's how it looks so far, sorted by "most frequent physicality interactions" --

NYK Player Physicality Stats BOS Playyer Physicality Stats Verdict
Towns 38 plays, 11 wins, 7 knockdowns Brown 39 plays, 12 wins, 0 knockdowns draw
...pretty even in wins, Towns with some defeats, but also a one-sided toll on knockdowns!
Towns 36 plays, 14 wins, 2 knockdowns Tatum 38 plays, 14 wins, 0 knockdowns draw
...another close battle, similar to Towns' tussles with Brown.
Brunson 34 plays, 15 wins, 2 knockdowns Brown 40 plays, 10 wins, 6 knockdowns BRUNSON
...Brunson (+5 physicality wins) has hung very tough guarding Brown on supposed mismatches, drawing several offensive fouls and absorbing contact on drives and postups
Towns 36 plays, 14 wins, 1 knockdowns Horford 38 plays, 9 wins, 3 knockdowns TOWNS
...this was a blowout for KAT in game two, when three straight dominating physicality wins (and scores) against Horford forced Boston to switch to Brown guarding Towns.
Hart 35 plays, 15 wins, 0 knockdowns Brown 33 plays, 19 wins, 2 knockdowns BROWN
...Brown has had strong success bullying Hart on physical drives and postups, even fighting over Hart screens with physicality wins on occasion.
Brunson 24 plays, 12 wins, 1 knockdowns Holiday 39 plays, 19 wins, 0 knockdowns HOLIDAY
...Jrue has dominated Jalen, with powerful postups/seals when on offense, and constant hounding on defense, even picking up in the backcourt at times.
Brunson 31 plays, 13 wins, 1 knockdowns White 32 plays, 15 wins, 3 knockdowns draw
..you can lean a little to White so far, but it's close.
Hart 32 plays, 12 wins, 3 knockdowns White 22 plays, 10 wins, 3 knockdowns draw
...Hart spends a lot of effort trying to screen White and has some success but White fights over screens well. They also have some good battles at the rim.
Towns 21 plays, 5 wins, 3 knockdowns Holiday 31 plays, 14 wins, 2 knockdowns HOLIDAY
...Jrue has had a big impact here, +9 wins, and keeping Towns to a very low success rate on his attempted physicality (5 out of 21).
Anunoby 29 plays, 12 wins, 2 knockdowns Tatum 18 plays, 6 wins, 3 knockdowns ANUNOBY
...OG has +6 wins, +11 physicality plays, and has hit Tatum with a mix of offensive and defensive physicality.
Brunson 22 plays, 7 wins, 0 knockdowns Pritchard 21 plays, 12 wins, 0 knockdowns PRITCHARD
...Pritchard has made it tough and uncomfortable for Jalen so far, and could be a big difference maker as the series continues...
Hart 26 plays, 13 wins, 0 knockdowns Holiday 19 plays, 8 wins, 1 knockdowns HART
Robinson 20 plays, 9 wins,
0 knockdowns
Porzingis 21 plays, 4 wins, 1 knockdowns ROBINSON
Anunoby 11 plays, 5 wins, 0 knockdowns Horford 27 plays, 13 wins, 3 knockdowns HORFORD


Full Player Physicality Stats

We track over 40 different forms of physical contact, with both the player initiating and the player receiving the contact. From this we can calculate all kinds of stats, ratings, and nuance. We are still learning about the way these stats influence winning. More to come!!

Header notes:
RPR = "Roland Physicality Rating" (in development)
Plays = Physicality Plays (adjusted by level of force)
Wins = a Physicality play that is deemed a 'win'
L = Losses (non-intentional fouls and soft plays)
L2+ = level 2 or high force physicality plays
Falls = player hits the ground
KD = Knockdowns: causes opponent to hit the ground
Net Pts = 'results over process' calculation

NEW YORK KNICKS

Player
RPR*
Plays
Wins
L
L2+
Falls
KD
Hart
Brunson
Towns
Anunoby
Robinson
Bridges
McBride
Payne
154.0
135.8
127.2
116.2
78.5
73.8
20.0
16.2
144
131
145
95
76
75
28
15
62
57
50
45
31
32
9
9
10
13
16
3
4
9
4
4
6
6
7
4
2
2
0
0
14
16
7
9
6
6
2
3
6
5
16
6
3
5
2
1

...NEW YORK KNICKS "physicality suffered"

Player
xRPR*
Plays
Agn
Wins
Agn
L2+
Agn
Hart
Brunson
Towns
Anunoby
Robinson
Bridges
McBride
Payne
138.5
205.2
153.0
129.0
78.5
140.8
49.0
32.2
106
173
162
98
70
99
40
23
50
71
52
49
29
53
18
12
5
12
5
2
0
7
2
1

Analysis:

  • Josh Hart physciality is the name of his game -- sets a lot of screens, makes a lot of contact on physical effort plays, absorbs a lot on drives...and +12 in net physicality wins.

  • Jalen Brunson is the runaway leader for both teams in physicality suffered (71 wins against, 205.2 xRPR). His toughness is unquestioned though as shown by some of his matchup success above versus bigger players, as well as his clutch performance despite all the hits he is taking.

  • KAT has 16 knockdowns to emphasize his physical side is there, but has been inconsistent and dealing with foul trouble at times.

  • Mikal Bridges is not the most physical player, and has a net negative -21 physicality wins, but he has had a few fourth quarter moments to be proud of.


BOSTON CELTICS

Player
RPR*
Plays
Wins
L
L2+
Falls
KD
Horford
Brown
Holiday
Tatum
White
Pritchard
Porzingis
Kornet
152.5
136.8
132.8
108.0
89.5
89.2
70.0
62.5
124
139
117
102
76
81
80
62
60
53
55
42
37
37
27
26
9
10
9
8
8
5
7
6
6
6
5
6
4
2
4
1
7
12
6
5
9
2
0
2
18
10
4
9
9
1
5
6

...BOSTON CELTICS "physicality suffered"

Player
xRPR*
Plays
Agn
Wins
Agn
L2+
Agn
Horford
Brown
Holiday
Tatum
White
Pritchard
Porzingis
Kornet
105.2
175.2
106.2
129.8
100.8
64.8
89.0
52.5
95
149
85
105
93
63
72
54
35
63
39
49
36
24
34
18
8
6
4
3
1
0
3
2

Analysis:

  • Al Horford was impressive in game three, and outside of trying to guard Towns one on one, has been solid. He leads both teams with 18 knockdowns, and in part because of his offensive role has low 'physicality suffered' numbers.

  • Jaylen Brown is the workhorse for Boston physicality wise, not afraid to do the dirty work. He's fighting over screens, posting up and defending the post, and driving with intent.

  • Jrue Holiday has been sneaky good on the physical plays, giving both Brunson and KAT trouble, although getting hit a bit by Hart when facing his "counterpart" of sorts on the Knicks.

  • Jayson Tatum hasn't shown a lot of physicality, especially in the first half of games, but we may see an uptick going forward.


Signature Physicality Moments from Game 3

  • Q1 (5:56) Brown dominates Bridges
    Jaylen screens Bridges forcing a switch, then takes him right down mid paint for the catch and quick power drive from dots to the rim overhwleming Bridges for an easy two.

  • Q1 (:52) Knicks have to work hard to score
    Brunson drives past Horford, kicks to the corner, while Robinson sets an offball screen to prevent KP from rotating. Achiuwa makes a strong physical drive and finish, but it takes three physical plays to score versus the ease at which the Celtics are generating good looks.

  • Q2 (3:58) Brown multi-effort physicality
    Jaylen first pushes off Hart to get clear and then clips Brunson on a screen. Once he gets the ball it's a power drive at Hart to the rim and finishes even though Hart got his hand on the ball on the way up.

  • Q3 (11:18) Jrue with the play of the game
    Holiday gets an early seal on Brunson, who battles hard, and with the ball coming his way and Bridges closing to help, Holiday somehow through contact for the catch redirects pass to White for an open corner three. "Ridiculous" says Doris!

  • Q3 (6:17) White gives Celtics all the momentum
    White fights over a Hart screen to get back in front of Brunson and proceeds to knock the ball away, leading to a fastbreak and one.

  • Q3 (5:54) Knicks looking desperate
    Bridges tries to fastbreak Horford but Holiday is there to deter the shot. The ball gets to OG, but White knocks it out and OG over, and Horford outhustles Bridges to the ball.

  • Q3 (3:38) Brown gets a win on Brunson
    Brown guarded by Jalen drives him hard, keeps the ball through a Hart slash from the nail, and sends Brunson flying to clear space for the calm all-the-time-in-the-world open shot from the high paint.

  • Q4 (11:10) Celtics say "No comeback this time!"
    Horford first holds Towns to make movement hard, then Tatum outworks KAT on the catch to knock the ball out, Horford beats McBride to it and outlets, Tatum tips it away from Bridges for an open FB three.

  • Q4 (10:13) Brunson holds his ground
    On another postup mismatch at the free throw line, Jalen falls and draws the offensive foul on Tatum. Comes back with a 3 to pull the Knicks within 20.

  • Q4 (8:28) Brunson makes a statement
    Jostling hard with Horford, who's trying for the early postup. No call from the ref either way, so Jalen ups the ante by pushing Horford to the ground. Still no foul but chirping as we head to a timeout.

  • Q4 (7:32) Horford with another great block
    Towns makes a great drop off pass around KP to Robinson for the dunk but Horford meets him at the rim and rejects it.


Final Take

"Shotmaking matters, so does physicality. In Game 3, Boston finally brought both."

After two games of clanging threes and missed opportunities, the Celtics caught fire from deep -- but it was the physical tone they set that truly broke the Knicks. Jaylen Brown bulldozed Bridges. Jrue Holiday dropped a wizard pass through contact. Derrick White turned defense into a dagger.

Yes, the Knicks had moments -- Brunson drew a charge, even shoved Horford to the floor in frustration -- but they had to fight for everything. Boston's signature plays came easier, louder, and more often. This wasn't just better shotmaking. It was physical control.

And after a night like that, New York has to be wondering: do we have another level we can reach, or have the Celtics just found theirs?



Also see:
- 2024 NBA Playoffs "Physicality" ratings
- NBA Playoff "Physicality" -- Now vs Then